People are well-calibrated about their own independent completion times¶
Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · causalr3·q3
Currency · newest study 2026 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person
Subclaims¶
Reading the evidence codes
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q3 i? Predicted and actual independent completion times did not differ significantly, indicating accurate self-calibration. → Sunny Yu 2026
Evidence¶
Sunny Yu 2026¶
Sunny Yu, Myra Cheng, Ahmad Jabbar, Ilia Sucholutsky, Katherine M. Collins, Dan Jurafsky, Robert D. Hawkins. (2026). Cognitive offloading and the speedup illusion in human-AI interaction. arXiv. https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.23177 doi:10.48550/arxiv.2605.23177
q3 · i? · causal · r3
In the same mixed-effects calibration analysis, the independent condition showed "no significant difference between the actual and predicted completion times" (β=−2.52, p=0.775). Two category-level exceptions were reported: underestimation for C2 and overestimation for C4, with no significant effect across difficulty levels.
"we found no significant difference between the actual and predicted completion times in the independent completion condition (β=−2.52,SE=8.83,z=−0.29 ,p=0.775), which suggests that people's predictions are generally accurate."
Discussion¶
Related Claims¶
- Access to AI advice roughly doubled reported confidence in answers in one experiment — the general claim this finding bears on, with the studies behind it
- People significantly underestimate AI-assisted completion times on simple cognitive tasks, even though AI assistance saves little or no actual time (the speedup illusion) — related
- Participants more averse to thinking are more susceptible to the speedup illusion; AI familiarity measures do not predict calibration error — related
- Prior Knowledge Needed For Accurate Self Assessment — a broader claim this one bears on
- People expect AI assistance to save far more time than assistance from another highly intelligent human participant — related
- People overestimate how much mental effort AI assistance alleviates (offloading illusion), driven by overestimating the effort of independent completion while AI-assisted effort is accurately estimated — related
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
accurate-independent-completion-time-predictions |
title |
People are well-calibrated about their own independent completion times |
description |
People are well-calibrated about their own independent completion times |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
moderate |
newest_evidence |
2026 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-10 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
1 — sunny-yu-2026 |
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