Sensitivity analyses identify Supported secondary-hub formation as the strongest long-term driver of simulated ARC growth¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · design r2 · q1
Currency · newest study 2026 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q1 i? At year 40, varying Supported secondary-hub formation, support capacity, and reach radius changed projected program counts by approximately 430, 338, and 302 schools, with Morris screening likewise ranking Supported secondary-hub formation strongest. → Jacobson 2026

Evidence¶

Jacobson 2026¶

Jacobson, M. J.; Rodriguez-Rivera, G.; Drineas, P.; and Xue, Y. (2026). Teaching AI, Robotics, & Community: A Hubs-Based K–12 Education Framework for Reaching Rural Schools. https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.18072 doi:10.48550/arxiv.2609.18072

q1 · i? · design · r2

One-at-a-time parameter sweeps and Morris sensitivity screening of the Indiana simulation, reported in the Spatially-Explicit Markov Model of Growth section with full methods in Appendix D. Simulation-based analysis, not empirical measurement.

"At year 40, varying Supported secondary-hubformation,supportcapacity,andreachradius across their optimism-level ranges changed projected pro- gram counts by approximately 430, 338, and 302 schools, with Morris likewise ranking Supported secondary-hub for- mation as the strongest long-term driver."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Simulation ablations show ARC's projected growth requires both primary and secondary hub mechanisms together — related
• Indiana Markov simulation projects ARC reaches 74% of public K–12 schools and produces 992 robotics programs after 40 years at moderate optimism, versus 161 under natural growth — related
• Leveraging pre-existing networks or hubs may support greater potential for long-term sustainability of cross-sector reform — a broader claim this one bears on