California will need at least 16,000 to 19,700 assistant TK teachers by 2025–26 under one-lead-one-assistant staffing¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2022 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Total assistant TK teacher need is projected at 16,000–19,700 by 2025–26, assuming one assistant per class to meet 12:1 and 10:1 child–adult ratios. → Melnick 2022

Evidence¶

Melnick 2022¶

Melnick, H., García, E., & Leung-Gagné, M. (2022). Building a well-qualified transitional kindergarten workforce in California: Needs and opportunities. Learning Policy Institute. https://doi.org/10.54300/826.674

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Projection from the report's staffing-configuration assumption of one lead and one assistant teacher per class, with class sizes of up to 24 (2022–23) and up to 20 (2023–24 onward) at 90% enrollment efficiency. The report projects total need but not additional need, because no baseline assistant data exist.

"California will need at least 16,000 to 19,700 assistant TK teachers by 2025–26, assuming each class will have an assistant teacher to meet child–adult ratios of 12:1 in 2022–23 and 10:1 in 2023–24."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Districts will need to hire between 11,900 and 15,600 additional lead TK teachers by 2025–26 beyond the estimated 4,100 already employed — related
• TK staffing needs grew with expansion while vacancy rates held steady, but LEAs projected nearly 2,400 additional assistant teachers for 2025–26 — related
• California's universal TK expansion will require an additional 11,900 to 15,600 credentialed teachers with early childhood expertise by 2025–26 — related
• Growth in TK teacher demand is projected to be non-linear, with the sharpest increases in 2023–24 and 2025–26 — related
• TK enrollment in California is projected to reach between 291,000 and 358,000 children by 2025–26 under three modeled uptake scenarios — related
• TK staffing shortages improved: TK assistant teacher vacancies fell from 12% to 3%, and 91% of LEAs reported enough lead teachers meeting 2025–26 requirements — related