Estimates of the return to college selectivity fall substantially, often to near zero, when earnings are tracked from 1983 through 2007 and for a 1989 entering cohort¶
Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associationalr?·q2
Currency · newest study 2011 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2016: baselines and conditions change
Subclaims¶
Reading the evidence codes
q is the design tier, i the impact, n the sample, and the kind with its r
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This claim: no standardized effect is recorded in observations/ for it yet, so no benchmark reading is possible.
q2 i? Using longer-horizon administrative earnings data (1983–2007) and a 1989 college-entry cohort, estimates of the return to college selectivity fell substantially, often to near zero. → Stacy Dale 2011
Evidence¶
Stacy Dale 2011¶
Stacy Dale, Alan B. Krueger. (2011). Estimating the Return to College Selectivity Over the Career Using Administrative Earning Data. Princeton, NJ: Mathematica Policy Research and Princeton University. https://www.mathematica.org/publications/estimating-the-return-to-college-selectivity-over-the-career-using-administrative-earning-data
q2 · i? · associational · r?
Observational analysis of administrative earnings records, described on the publication's summary page. The researchers found that "estimates of the return to college selectivity fell substantially, often to near zero" under the longer horizon and newer cohort. No effect size is printed.
"Using earnings data from a longer time horizon (from 1983 through 2007) as well as data for a more recent cohort of students who entered college in 1989, the researchers found that estimates of the return to college selectivity fell substantially, often to near zero."
Discussion¶
Related Claims¶
- The study extends a previous paper that examined the 1995 earnings of a cohort of students who entered college in 1976 — related
- The return to college selectivity remains large for black, Hispanic, and students from less-educated families — related
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
college-selectivity-earnings-return-near-zero-long-horizon |
title |
Estimates of the return to college selectivity fall substantially, often to near zero, when earnings are tracked from 1983 through 2007 and for a 1989 entering cohort |
description |
Estimates of the return to college selectivity fall substantially, often to near zero, when earnings are tracked from 1983 through 2007 and for a 1989 entering cohort |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
moderate |
newest_evidence |
2011 |
recheck_by |
2016 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-09 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
1 — stacy-dale-2011 |
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