Not passing a dual enrollment course is associated with an 11-12 percentage point reduction in college enrollment probability compared to passing, with a similar penalty across student groups¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2026 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Statistically matched students who did not pass at least one dual enrollment course show an 11-12 percentage point lower probability of college enrollment than matched students who passed, after controlling for prior preparation and demographics. → Terrell 2026 q2 i? The penalty is consistent in magnitude across student groups; the difference between SED students and their peers is not statistically significant, but SED students start from a lower college-going baseline (around 55 percent versus 73 percent). → Terrell 2026 (2)

Evidence¶

Terrell 2026¶

Terrell, J. H., Mathias, J., Blanchard, A., & Roldan-Rueda, D. (2026). The arc of dual enrollment: Access, struggle, and what makes success possible. WestEd. https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED681344

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Statistical matching of students who enrolled and did not pass against students who enrolled and passed, in the CALPADS statewide data. The authors state matching "cannot fully overcome the selection and omitted variable bias in this case," so the estimate is associational. Only the printed percentage range is reported; no effect size.

"11–12 percentage point reduction in college enrollment probability for students who do not pass dual enrollment, compared to students who pass, after controlling for prior academic preparation and demographics"

Terrell 2026 (2)¶

Terrell, J. H., Mathias, J., Blanchard, A., & Roldan-Rueda, D. (2026). The arc of dual enrollment: Access, struggle, and what makes success possible. WestEd. https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED681344

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Authors' subgroup analysis of CALPADS administrative data, cohorts 2015-16 through 2018-19, finding no statistically significant difference in the failure penalty between SED and non-SED students; equivalence was not formally tested and no effect size is printed.

"the penalty is consistent in magnitude across student groups—the difference between students from low-income and first-generation backgrounds and their peers is not statistically significant"

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Students who enrolled in dual enrollment and did not pass are about 6 percentage points more likely to enroll in college than comparable students who never took advanced coursework — related
• Passing the college algebra placement test near the cut-off and enrolling in dual enrollment college algebra was associated with a 16 percent higher likelihood of going to college — related
• Dual enrollment participation is associated with an approximately 8.5 percentage point increase in college enrollment probability, with larger gains for students from low-income and first-generation backgrounds — related
• OUSD's open-access dual enrollment program maintains an 82 percent course pass rate among predominantly first-generation, low-income students and students of color — related
• Automatic (opt-out) enrollment policies increase enrollment and success of students of color and low-income students in advanced courses, per research the brief cites — related