EduYears polygenic scores predict achievement increasingly with age (about 4% at KS1 to 10% at GCSE) and show largely stable effects, with less than 1% age-specific prediction¶
Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · associationalr3·q3
Currency · newest study 2018 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person
Subclaims¶
Reading the evidence codes
q is the design tier, i the impact, n the sample, and the kind with its r
the rigour judged within that kind: what each code means.
This claim: no standardized effect is recorded in observations/ for it yet, so no benchmark reading is possible.
q3 i? EduYears GPS prediction of core achievement rises across school years: about 4% at KS1, 6% at KS2, 8% at KS3, and 10% at GCSE. → Rimfeld 2018
q3 i? GPS prediction is largely stable from age to age, with little (<1%) age-specific prediction once prediction from all previous ages is accounted for. → Rimfeld 2018 (2)
Evidence¶
Rimfeld 2018¶
Rimfeld, K., Malanchini, M., Krapohl, E., Hannigan, L. J., Dale, P. S. & Plomin, R. (2018). The stability of educational achievement across school years is largely explained by genetic factors. npj Science of Learning 3:16. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41539-018-0030-0
q3 · i? · associational · r3
Polygenic score (EduYears GPS, derived from a GWA of years of education) regression analyses in the TEDS genotyped sample; delta R2 variance explained rises from "about 4% for KS1" to "10% for GCSE". Variance explained, not a standardised effect size.
"Edu- Years GPS increasingly predicted core educational achievement — about 4% for KS1, 6% for KS2, 8% for KS3, and 10% for GCSE."
Rimfeld 2018 (2)¶
Rimfeld, K., Malanchini, M., Krapohl, E., Hannigan, L. J., Dale, P. S. & Plomin, R. (2018). The stability of educational achievement across school years is largely explained by genetic factors. npj Science of Learning 3:16. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41539-018-0030-0
q3 · i? · associational · r3
Age-specificity regression analyses of EduYears GPS prediction across the four ages; after accounting for prediction from all preceding ages, the article prints "little (<1%)" age-specific genetic prediction, indicating stable GPS effects. No standardised effect size is printed.
"our regression analyses indicated little (<1%) age-specific genetic prediction once the stable prediction of EduYears GPS from all previous ages was taken into account."
Discussion¶
Related Claims¶
- EduYears GPS correlates positively with GCSE (7.6% of variance) and with the selection factors ability (2.1%), achievement (5.2%) and family SES (6.6%) — related
- Educational achievement is highly stable from age 7 to 16, with age-to-age phenotypic correlations ranging from 0.66 to 0.85 — related
- EduYears GPS predicts more variance in GCSE scores (about 10%) than in its GWA target trait, adult years of education (about 4%) — related
- Polygenic score predictive power for educational attainment increases with discovery sample size and is projected to approach the SNP heritability bound — related
- Children in higher SES families have higher average polygenic scores for educational attainment — related
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
eduyears-gps-increasing-stable-prediction-achievement |
title |
EduYears polygenic scores predict achievement increasingly with age (about 4% at KS1 to 10% at GCSE) and show largely stable effects, with less than 1% age-specific prediction |
description |
EduYears polygenic scores predict achievement increasingly with age (about 4% at KS1 to 10% at GCSE) and show largely stable effects, with less than 1% age-specific prediction |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
moderate |
newest_evidence |
2018 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-27 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
2 — rimfeld-2018, rimfeld-2018-2 |
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