The Excel sheet's knower-level estimates agree with a 2:1 heuristic on 38 of 56 children and are more lenient for larger set sizes¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · design r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2011 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2014: tool and model accuracy changes quickly

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Using the modal posterior as a point estimate, the Excel sheet matched the heuristic's knower level for 38 of 56 children; of the remaining 18, in only 1 case was the Excel estimate a lower knower level than the heuristic's. → Negen 2011

Evidence¶

Negen 2011¶

Negen, J., Sarnecka, B. W., & Lee, M. D. (2011). An Excel sheet for inferring children's number-knower levels from give-N data. Behavior Research Methods. https://doi.org/10.3758/s13428-011-0134-4

q2 · i? · design · r2

Comparison on the 56-child data set of the Excel sheet's modal posterior estimate against the 2:1 correct-to-error heuristic. The article attributes the differences to the heuristic requiring "the same proportion of correct answers for every knower level," whereas the model is more lenient on larger sets.

"There are 38 cases in which this estimate matches the kno wer level inferred by the heuristic. Of the remaini ng 18 cases, in only 1 case is the estimate from the Excel sheet a lower knower level than the estimate from the heuristic."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• The Excel sheet's knower-level inference closely matches fully Bayesian inference, with no discrepancies in posterior maxima — related
• Fully Bayesian inference on the calibration data set assigned 423 sessions across six knower levels and estimated an evidence value v of 16.94 — related