Lay forecasters predicted that practicing alone would produce more learning than practicing with AI, contrary to the experimental results¶
Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · causalr3·q3
Currency · newest study 2025 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person
Subclaims¶
Reading the evidence codes
q is the design tier, i the impact, n the sample, and the kind with its r
the rigour judged within that kind: what each code means.
This claim: no standardized effect is recorded in observations/ for it yet, so no benchmark reading is possible.
q3 i? Shown the Study 2 design, 64.7% of forecasters ranked practicing alone above practicing with AI, versus 35.3% the converse (χ²(1)=12.9, p<.001). → Benjamin Lira 2025
Evidence¶
Benjamin Lira 2025¶
Benjamin Lira, Todd Rogers, Daniel G. Goldstein, Lyle Ungar, and Angela L. Duckworth. (2025). Coach not crutch: Evidence that AI can improve writing skill despite reducing effort. https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.02880 doi:10.48550/arxiv.2502.02880
q3 · i? · causal · r3
Pre-registered forecasting study (N=150) in which participants saw screenshots of the Study 2 design and rank-ordered conditions by expected learning. "nearly twice as many forecasters (64.7%) ranked practicing alone above practicing writing with access to an AI tool"; this prediction contradicted the actual results.
"nearly twice as many forecasters (64.7%) ranked practicing alone above practicing writing with access to an AI tool as the converse (35.3%,χ2 (1) = 12.9,p< .001)"
Discussion¶
Related Claims¶
- Retrieval practice instructions improved final recall of translations in Experiment 1 — related
- Effort forecasting is driven by recent engagement activity while progress forecasting depends more on learner-centered signals such as ability, difficulty, and consistency — related
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
forecasters-predicted-ai-practice-would-harm-learning |
title |
Lay forecasters predicted that practicing alone would produce more learning than practicing with AI, contrary to the experimental results |
description |
Lay forecasters predicted that practicing alone would produce more learning than practicing with AI, contrary to the experimental results |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
moderate |
newest_evidence |
2025 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-10 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
1 — benjamin-lira-2025 |
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