Learners judge massed-presented items as more likely to be recalled than distributed-presented items, although their recall is worse¶
Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · causalr2·q3
Currency · newest study 1980 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person
Subclaims¶
Reading the evidence codes
q is the design tier, i the impact, n the sample, and the kind with its r
the rigour judged within that kind: what each code means.
This claim: no standardized effect is recorded in observations/ for it yet, so no benchmark reading is possible.
q3 i? Ratings of recall likelihood were consistently greater for MP than DP items in each study block, though the overall mean difference was not statistically significant. → Zechmeister 1980
q3 i? The MP-DP difference in ratings was in marked opposition to the MP-DP difference in recall; the difference of the differences was statistically significant. → Zechmeister 1980 (2)
Evidence¶
Zechmeister 1980¶
Zechmeister, E. B., & Shaughnessy, J. J. (1980). When you know that you know and when you think that you know but you don't. Bulletin of the Psychonomic Society, 15(1), 41-44. https://doi.org/10.3758/bf03329756
q3 · i? · causal · r2
Analysis of 7-point likelihood-of-recall ratings from the 24-subject free recall experiment. In all four study blocks MP ratings exceeded DP ratings (overall means 4.57 vs. 4.23), but the article reports the overall difference was "not statistically significant" [t(23) = 1.04].
"When mean ratings oflikelihood of recall are examined for MP and DP items, the results shown in Table I reveal that in each of the four study blocks ratings associated with MP items were greater than those for DP items ."
Zechmeister 1980 (2)¶
Zechmeister, E. B., & Shaughnessy, J. J. (1980). When you know that you know and when you think that you know but you don't. Bulletin of the Psychonomic Society, 15(1), 41-44. https://doi.org/10.3758/bf03329756
q3 · i? · causal · r2
A z-score analysis of the same experiment contrasted the MP-DP difference in recall with the MP-DP difference in ratings. The "difference of the differences was statistically significant", showing ratings ran opposite to recall probability (Figure 2).
"Using z scores, the average MP-DP difference in recall performance was contrasted with that for the rating task, and the resultant difference of the differences was statistically significant [t(23) = 2.64, Sdiff= .39, p <.05] ."
Discussion¶
Related Claims¶
- Learners accurately judge that twice-presented items are more likely to be recalled than once-presented items — related
- Across item types, items given high recall-likelihood ratings are recalled with greater probability than items given lower ratings — related
- Distributed presentations are recalled better than massed presentations in free recall (the spacing effect), and requiring likelihood ratings does not alter this effect — related
- Items rated for recall likelihood are recalled at a higher overall level than nonrated items, though extra effective study time confounds this — related
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
judgments-overconfidence-massed-items |
title |
Learners judge massed-presented items as more likely to be recalled than distributed-presented items, although their recall is worse |
description |
Learners judge massed-presented items as more likely to be recalled than distributed-presented items, although their recall is worse |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
moderate |
newest_evidence |
1980 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-16 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
2 — zechmeister-1980, zechmeister-1980-2 |
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