The KEI threshold was accurate for the cohort despite large individual-level prediction errors (53% of proficient and 73% of non-proficient students correctly classified)¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2019 · checked against its sources 2026-10-20 (automated, 1 of 1 entry) · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2022: tool and model accuracy changes quickly

Subclaims¶

q2 i? The threshold correctly predicted the proficiency status of 53 percent of students who were proficient and 73 percent of those who were not proficient on the grade 3 PSSA. → Jessica F. Harding 2019

Evidence¶

Jessica F. Harding 2019¶

Jessica F. Harding, Mariesa Herrmann, Elias S. Hanno, Christine Ross. (2019). Using Kindergarten Entry Assessments to Measure Whether Philadelphia’s Students Are On-Track for Reading Proficiently. Regional Educational Laboratory Mid-Atlantic. https://ies.ed.gov/ncee/edlabs/regions/mid-atlantic/

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Classification-accuracy analysis of the threshold on the cohort dataset. The article reports the threshold "correctly predicted the proficiency status of 53 percent of the students who were proficient" and 73 percent of those not proficient, with no effect size printed.

"Accurate prediction of the proficiency rate of the full cohort of students was possible despite a large number of errors in predicting the proficiency of individual students. The threshold correctly predicted the proficiency status of 53 percent of the students who were proficient on the grade 3 PSSA and 73 percent of those who were not proficient."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Kindergarten entry scores predict grade 3 reading proficiency: Philadelphia kindergarteners with higher KEI scores in 2014/15 had higher grade 3 PSSA ELA scores — a broader claim this one bears on
• A threshold of 6 on a 1–10 index of two KEI dimensions matched the cohort's actual 37 percent grade 3 ELA proficiency rate — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
• MAP Reading Fluency SWCPM scores classify students into ARM proficiency categories with exact match rates of 74.6–90.8%, kappa 0.60–0.85, and overall accuracy 0.81–0.96 — related
• The models' classification accuracy exceeds that of 97 percent of prior studies predicting high school completion — related
• Prior categoric studies found teachers correctly classified only about half of students' monitoring orientations