Lowest-confidence-trial accuracy in the mathematics data was at or above the guessing rate, supporting the guessing hypothesis¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · causal r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2021 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? None of the performance tertiles had accuracy below 25% at the lowest confidence level, with the lowest performers almost exactly at 25%. → Vuorre 2021

Evidence¶

Vuorre 2021¶

Vuorre, M., & Metcalfe, J. (2021). Measures of relative metacognitive accuracy are confounded with task performance in tasks that permit guessing. Metacognition and Learning. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11409-020-09257-1

q2 · i? · causal · r2

Secondary analysis of Experiments 1A-F data, computed separately for performance tertiles, testing the random-guessing assumption that lowest-confidence accuracy should not drop below 1/K = 25% in four-alternative tasks. The authors note these analyses were preliminary and describe the lowest performers as almost exactly at 25%.

"In support of the guessing hypothesis, none of the performance tertiles had performance below 25% at the lowest level of confidence (Low performers: 24.6%, 95%CI = [20.9, 28.2], medium performers: 32.1%, 95%CI = [27, 37.3], high performers: 40%, 95%CI = [33.1, 47])."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Guessing biases calibration measures toward underconfidence, strongest for the lowest performers — related
• Observed performance-resolution slopes in the mathematics data were not greater than those produced by guessing in simulation — related