Merit award winners were nearly three times as likely to leave their school the following year (16.9% vs 5.9%), mostly leaving the district¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 2 studies · 2 causal r2 · q2–q3
Currency · newest study 2023 · 1 of 2 entries checked against their sources (automated) · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q3 i? Principals who received the merit award were nearly three times as likely to leave their school the next year (16.9%) than similar-effectiveness principals just below the cut-off (5.9%); 83% of departures were exits from the district. → Rivkin 2023

q2 i? Principals who just exceeded the threshold for a merit award are over twice as likely to exit their school the year after winning compared to principals who fell just short of the award threshold. → Signaling effects of merit awards: Evidence from school principals in Chicago 2023

Evidence¶

Rivkin 2023¶

Rivkin, S.G., Sartain, L., & Schiman, J.C. (2023). Training and retaining effective school leaders: Results from efforts to improve principal effectiveness in Chicago Public Schools. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/training-retaining-effective-school-leaders

q3 · i? · causal · r2

Regression discontinuity-style comparison of schools just above versus just below the merit award threshold. Award winners left at "16.9%" versus "5.9%" for near-miss principals; footnote reports 14.1/16.9 = 83% of departures were district exits, suggesting winners leveraged the award's labor-market signal.

"Principals who received the award were nearly three times as likely to leave their school the year after they won the award (16.9%), compared to principals with similar effectiveness who just missed the merit award cut-off (5.9%)."

Signaling effects of merit awards: Evidence from school principals in Chicago 2023¶

Signaling effects of merit awards: Evidence from school principals in Chicago. (2023). Economics of Education Review. https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/economics-of-education-review

q2 · i? · causal · r?

Regression discontinuity analysis of Chicago principals' merit awards compares principals just above and just below the award threshold. The study finds winners are "over twice as likely to exit their school the year after winning" than those just below the threshold.

"Principals who just exceeded the threshold for a merit award are over twice as likely to exit their school the year after winning compared to principals who fell just short of the award threshold"

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• The merit award program produced modest achievement improvements concentrated in schools close to the award threshold — related
• Residency-completer principals remained in CPS at similar rates as other principals, with no evidence of differential exit or transfer — related
• The merit award program's incentives increased student achievement in Chicago schools — related
• Effective, supportive principals retain teachers, with the largest effects in high-need schools — related
• Principal turnover is common: 18% of principals leave schools each year and half of new principals leave within three years, with cascading consequences — related
• Most principals in EPIC sites have positive attitudes toward EPIC and merit pay in general — related
• Balanced Leadership® may increase school leader retention at the school (potentially positive effects rating) — related