In exploratory synthetic control analyses, two GEO no-deadlines programs received 120 to 130 fewer proposals relative to their synthetic counterfactuals¶
Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · causalr2·q2
Currency · newest study 2022 · checked against its sources 2026-10-20 (automated, 1 of 1 entry) · not reviewed by a person
Subclaims¶
Reading the evidence codes
q is the design tier, i the impact, n the sample, and the kind with its r
the rigour judged within that kind: what each code means.
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q2 i? Relative to synthetic control counterfactuals, the Antarctic Research and Arctic Research Opportunities NDL programs received 123 to 128 fewer proposals in the three years after NDL implementation. → Fesler 2022
Evidence¶
Fesler 2022¶
Fesler, Lily and Lindsay Fox. (2022). No-deadlines Synthetic Control and Exploratory Outcomes Analysis and Recommendations for a Future Rigorous Evaluation [Memorandum]. Alexandria, VA: National Science Foundation. https://www.mathematica.org/publications/no-deadlines-synthetic-control-and-exploratory-outcomes-analysis-and-recommendations-for-a-future
q2 · i? · causal · r2
Exploratory augmented synthetic control analysis of two GEO NDL programs (Antarctic Research NSF 21-567; Arctic Research Opportunities NSF 21-526), each matched to within-directorate non-NDL comparison programs with close pre-treatment fit. The memo reports the programs "received 123 to 128 fewer proposals" relative to the counterfactual; no tests of statistical significance are presented.
"Model estimates suggest that NDL programs received 123 to 128 fewer proposals, requested $265,000 to $294,000 more funding, required 0.9 to 1.8 fewer reviewers, and were less likely to be rated as fair (by 4 to 9 percentage points) or underperforming (by one percentage point)."
Discussion¶
Related Claims¶
- Exploratory analyses suggest NDL increased requested funding, reduced reviewer burden, and shifted proposal quality ratings for two GEO programs — related
- Synthetic control counterfactuals performed poorly for BIO NDL programs because few comparison programs were available — related
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
ndl-reduced-proposal-volume-geo-exploratory |
title |
In exploratory synthetic control analyses, two GEO no-deadlines programs received 120 to 130 fewer proposals relative to their synthetic counterfactuals |
description |
In exploratory synthetic control analyses, two GEO no-deadlines programs received 120 to 130 fewer proposals relative to their synthetic counterfactuals |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
weak |
newest_evidence |
2022 |
source_checked |
2026-10-20 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-08 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
1 — fesler-2022 |
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