Subjects highest in numeracy draw valid causal inferences from data better than less numerate subjects when the data are politically uncharged (skin rash treatment framing)¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · causal r? · q2
Currency · newest study 2017 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? In an experiment presenting a difficult causal-inference problem as a skin rash treatment study, subjects highest in numeracy did substantially better than less numerate ones. → DAN M. KAHAN 2017

Evidence¶

DAN M. KAHAN 2017¶

DAN M. KAHAN, ELLEN PETERS, ERICA CANTRELL DAWSON and PAUL SLOVIC. (2017). Motivated numeracy and enlightened self-government. Behavioural Public Policy, Volume 1, Issue 1. https://doi.org/10.1017/bpp.2016.2

q2 · i? · causal · r?

The article's experiment presented subjects a difficult problem requiring valid causal inference from empirical data. In the politically uncharged skin rash treatment framing, the article reports highly numerate subjects "did substantially better than less numerate ones". No effect size is printed in the supplied text.

"subjects highest in numeracy – a measure of the ability and disposition to make use of quantitative information – did substantially better than less numerate ones when the data were presented as results from a study of a new skin rash treatment"

Discussion¶

Learner Variables¶

• Inferencing — predictor: learners who differ on it differ in outcomes

Related Claims¶

• Politically charged framing (gun control ban) makes responses to the same data politically polarized and less accurate — related
• Numeracy is defined and used as a measure of the ability and disposition to make use of quantitative information in causal-inference tasks — related
• Contrary to the science comprehension thesis, political polarization of data interpretation did not abate among the most numerate subjects but increased — related