Numerical abilities and serial retrieval fluency predict third-grade multiplication fluency, while working memory shows no significant association in the baseline model¶
Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associationalr2·q3
Currency · newest study 2026 · checked against its sources 2026-10-24 (automated, 1 of 1 entry) · not reviewed by a person
Subclaims¶
Reading the evidence codes
q is the design tier, i the impact, n the sample, and the kind with its r
the rigour judged within that kind: what each code means.
This claim: no standardized effect is recorded in observations/ for it yet, so no benchmark reading is possible.
q3 i? In the baseline SEM model, numerical abilities strongly and serial retrieval fluency moderately predicted third-grade multiplication skill, and working memory showed no significant association. → Rautiainen 2026
Evidence¶
Rautiainen 2026¶
Rautiainen, J., Aro, T., Aro, M., Tolvanen, A., & Koponen, T. (2026). Hierarchical Nature of Arithmetic Skills: Similarities and Differences Between Arithmetic Operations. Journal of Educational Psychology, Early online. https://doi.org/10.1037/edu0001066
q3 · i? · associational · r2
Baseline latent SEM model fitted to the longitudinal sample of 207 children, with predictors measured in fall of second grade and multiplication fluency in spring of third grade. The article reports that "numerical abilities strongly predicted, and serial retrieval fluency moderately predicted third grade multiplication skill"; the model explained R2 = .35 (R2 = .42 before residualization).
"In the baseline observations, of the three latent structures, numerical abilities strongly predicted, and serial retrieval fluency moderately predicted third grade multiplication skill. Working memory appeared not to have significant associations with multiplication fluency on the baseline model."
Discussion¶
Learner Variables¶
- Arithmetic Fact Retrieval — predictor: learners who differ on it differ in outcomes
- Long-Term Memory — predictor: learners who differ on it differ in outcomes
- Number Sense — predictor: learners who differ on it differ in outcomes
Related Claims¶
- Addition fluency strongly predicts third-grade multiplication fluency, and a significant working memory association emerges after controlling for addition fluency — related
- In the reading fluency contrast model, numerical abilities and serial retrieval fluency predict multiplication fluency but working memory does not, indicating partial domain-specificity — related
- Subtraction fluency predicts third-grade multiplication fluency on par with addition fluency, with a similar emergent working memory association — related
- Inhibition does not uniquely predict arithmetic fact retrieval above numerical magnitude processing — related
- Symbolic magnitude comparison contributes more unique variance to fourth graders' multiplication fact performance than nonsymbolic magnitude comparison — related
- Numerical magnitude comparison explains significant unique variance in multiplication fact performance over and above phonological processing, intellectual ability, and general reaction time — related
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
numerical-abilities-retrieval-fluency-predict-multiplication-baseline |
title |
Numerical abilities and serial retrieval fluency predict third-grade multiplication fluency, while working memory shows no significant association in the baseline model |
description |
Numerical abilities and serial retrieval fluency predict third-grade multiplication fluency, while working memory shows no significant association in the baseline model |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
moderate |
newest_evidence |
2026 |
source_checked |
2026-10-24 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-24 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
1 — rautiainen-2026 |
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