Predictability enhances P3 amplitude, CNV amplitude, and shortens target-P3 latency equally at all ages, indexing mature prediction encoding, preparation, and implementation¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 2 studies · 2 causal r1–r2 · q3 · i3 large
Currency · newest study 2015 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2020: baselines and conditions change

Subclaims¶

q3 i3 P3 amplitude to predictive sequence stimuli S2 and S3 increased with predictability, with no effect of age group and no predictability × age interaction. → Thillay A 2015 q3 i3 CNV amplitude preceding targets and S3 stimuli was enhanced by predictability, with no age interaction, and target-P3 latency was shortened by predictability irrespective of age. → Thillay A 2015 (2)

Evidence¶

Thillay A 2015¶

Thillay A, Roux S, Gissot V, Carteau-Martin I, Knight RT, Bonnet-Brilhault F and Bidet-Caulet A (2015) Sustained attention and prediction: distinct brain maturation trajectories during adolescence. Front. Hum. Neurosci. 9:519. https://doi.org/10.3389/fnhum.2015.00519

q3 · i3 · causal · r2

rmANOVAs comparing ERPs to the same physical stimuli embedded or not embedded in the predictive sequence, in the 36-participant sample. Progressive P3 amplitude enhancement through the predictive sequence ("F(1,33) = 22.56, p < 0.001, ηp = 0.406" for S3) indicates predictive-value encoding and memorization, with no predictability × age interaction.

"P3 amplitude to S2 and S3 displayed a significant effect of predictability ( F(1,33) = 11.87, p = 0.002, ηp = 0.265, power = 0.917; or F(1,33) = 22.56, p < 0.001, ηp = 0.406, power = 0.996, respectively), but no effect of age group"

Thillay A 2015 (2)¶

Thillay A, Roux S, Gissot V, Carteau-Martin I, Knight RT, Bonnet-Brilhault F and Bidet-Caulet A (2015) Sustained attention and prediction: distinct brain maturation trajectories during adolescence. Front. Hum. Neurosci. 9:519. https://doi.org/10.3389/fnhum.2015.00519

q3 · i3 · causal · r1

rmANOVAs on CNV amplitude at Cz and on target-P3 latency at CPz in the same sample. The study also reports "The P3 ERP to predTs was found earlier in latency than to randTs at CPz (F(1,33) = 19.27, p < 0.001, ηp = 0.369, power = 0.989)" with no age group effect or interaction, indicating prediction implementation in all ages.

"A significant effect of predictability was found on CNV amplitude preceding targets ( F(1,33) = 23.57, p < 0.001, ηp = 0.417, power = 0.997), and preceding S3 ( F(1,33) = 9.24, p = 0.005, ηp = 0.219, power = 0.839), but not preceding S2"

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• CNV and P3 scalp topographies show a frontal shift with increasing age during adolescence — related
• The magnitude of ERP prediction markers correlates with the behavioral reaction-time benefit of predictability — related
• Reaction-time benefit from predictive context is similar across ages 12–24, suggesting mature prediction abilities by age 12 — related