Before instruction, most prospective teachers believed long consecutive runs of heads or tails were impossible and failed to distinguish real from fake coin-flip data¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · causal r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2015 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2020: baselines and conditions change

Subclaims¶

q2 i? On the pre-test, most prospective teachers made predictions with no more than 2-3 repeats and judged data with 4-7 consecutive identical outcomes to be fake. → Timur Koparan 2015

Evidence¶

Timur Koparan 2015¶

Timur Koparan, Gül Kaleli Yılmaz. (2015). The Effect of Simulation-based Learning on Prospective Teachers’ Inference Skills in Teaching Probability. Universal Journal of Educational Research 3(11). https://doi.org/10.13189/ujer.2015.031101

q2 · i? · causal · r2

Qualitative analysis of pre-test answer sheets from the prospective teachers, presented in Section 3.2 with example answers in Figure 2. Predictions avoided long repeats, reflecting the belief that the same side would not come up 4-5 or more times consecutively.

"it was found out that the majority of the prospective teachers made predictions that contained no more repeats than 2-3 times, the remaining a few prospective teachers made predictions as "all heads", "all tails", or 10 heads, 10 tails."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• A 30-minute generative AI literacy training increased intelligence analysts' overall accuracy at distinguishing real from AI-generated images by 9 percentage points — related
• After simulation-based instruction, prospective teachers gave more flexible answers accounting for variability and revised incorrect probability ideas — related