Students from socioeconomically disadvantaged backgrounds fail dual enrollment at higher rates than equally achieving peers, with the gap widening as achievement rises (the readiness illusion)¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2026 · checked against its sources 2026-10-17 (automated, 1 of 1 entry) · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? At the 90th percentile of 8th-grade math achievement, non-SED students had a dual enrollment failure rate of about 6.5 percent while SED students at the same achievement level had a rate of 10.2 percent, 58 percent higher. → Terrell 2026 q2 i? Higher achievement reduces failure rates for both groups, but the slope is shallower for SED students, so the gap between the groups widens as achievement increases rather than closing. → Terrell 2026

Evidence¶

Terrell 2026¶

Terrell, J. H., Mathias, J., Blanchard, A., & Roldan-Rueda, D. (2026). The arc of dual enrollment: Access, struggle, and what makes success possible. WestEd. https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED681344

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Authors' analysis of California Longitudinal Pupil Achievement Data System (CALPADS) data, presented in Figure 1 as predicted probabilities of dual enrollment failure by 8th-grade math percentile and SED status. The quoted sentence reports the printed percentages; no effect size is printed.

"At the 90th percentile of math achievement—that is, among the most academically prepared students in California—students who are not from low-income or first-generation backgrounds had a failure rate of about 6.5 percent. However, students from low-income and first-generation backgrounds at the same achievement level had a failure rate of 10.2 percent, a rate 58 percent higher."

Discussion¶

Learner Variables¶

• Socioeconomic Status — predictor: outcomes differ by group: a gap reflecting circumstances and treatment, not a cause

Related Claims¶

• School test score averages are strongly related to the income of the families a school serves — the general claim this finding bears on, with the studies behind it
• OUSD's open-access dual enrollment program maintains an 82 percent course pass rate among predominantly first-generation, low-income students and students of color — related
• Dual enrollment programs have positive effects on college degree attainment, with an average improvement index of +25 percentile points — related
• Removing Criterion 4 would likely increase reclassification rates for ready students, particularly those with disabilities or from lower socioeconomic backgrounds, without harming academic performance — related
• In OUSD dual enrollment courses, students most often identify the point person as their main source of support, at higher rates than the instructor, peers, or family — related
• Automatic (opt-out) enrollment policies increase enrollment and success of students of color and low-income students in advanced courses, per research the brief cites — related
• In a 700-student open-ended systems programming project graded by specification document rather than code, in-person test failure rates rose and inspected code failed to meet specifications — related
• The strongest college-readiness predictors measure four broad constructs: academic preparation, aspirations and expectations, socioeconomic status, and teacher perceptions — related