Rothstein (2010) found that standard VAMs imply implausible future-teacher effects on past student achievement¶
Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · theoreticalr?·q1
Currency · newest study 2012 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2015: tool and model accuracy changes quickly
Subclaims¶
Reading the evidence codes
q is the design tier, i the impact, n the sample, and the kind with its r
the rigour judged within that kind: what each code means.
This claim: no standardized effect is recorded in observations/ for it yet, so no benchmark reading is possible.
q1 i? Rothstein's influential paper reports that standard VAMs suggest implausible future teacher effects on past student achievement, a finding that cannot be causal. → Dan Goldhaber 2012
Evidence¶
Dan Goldhaber 2012¶
Dan Goldhaber, Duncan Chaplin. (2012). Assessing the Rothstein Test: Does It Really Show Teacher Value-Added Models Are Biased? Working Paper 5. Seattle, WA: Center for Education Data & Research, University of Washington. https://www.mathematica.org/publications/assessing-the-rothstein-test-does-it-really-show-teacher-valueadded-models-are-biased
q1 · i? · theoretical · r?
The article reports, citing Jesse Rothstein (2010), that standard VAMs imply "implausible future teacher effects on past student achievement". This is the reviewed study's finding as attributed here, not a result of the present paper.
"Jesse Rothstein (2010) finds that standard value-added models (VAMs) suggest implausible future teacher effects on past student achievement, a finding that obviously cannot be viewed as causal"
Discussion¶
Related Claims¶
- The Rothstein falsification test generates large and implausible future teacher effects even when students are randomly assigned to classrooms — related
- Theoretically and in simulations, the Rothstein test often falsifies unbiased VAMs and fails to falsify biased VAMs — related
- The Rothstein falsification test is not definitive in showing bias in VAM teacher effect estimates — related
- The Rothstein test can reject VAMs even when students are randomly assigned conditional on the covariates in the model — related
- The Rothstein falsification test can reject value-added models even when estimated teacher effects are unbiased — related
- Detecting that students are tracked to teachers does not necessarily imply bias in teacher effectiveness estimates — related
- Tracking based on lagged student achievement is usually accounted for in value-added models, which is why the falsification test can mislead — related
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
rothstein-implausible-future-teacher-effects |
title |
Rothstein (2010) found that standard VAMs imply implausible future-teacher effects on past student achievement |
description |
Rothstein (2010) found that standard VAMs imply implausible future-teacher effects on past student achievement |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
weak |
newest_evidence |
2012 |
recheck_by |
2015 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-08 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
1 — dan-goldhaber-2012 |
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