Surrogate analysis validates that observed Hurst exponents reflect genuine persistence rather than short-series artifacts¶
Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associationalr2·q2
Currency · newest study 2016 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person
Subclaims¶
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q2 i? Shuffled surrogate series produced smaller Hurst exponents than intact series (t(39) = 156.90, p < .001), supporting the reliability of the observed exponents. → Erica L. Snow 2016
Evidence¶
Erica L. Snow 2016¶
Erica L. Snow, Aaron D. Likens, Laura K. Allen, & Danielle S. McNamara. (2016). Taking Control: Stealth Assessment of Deterministic Behaviors Within a Game-Based System. International Journal of Artificial Intelligence in Education. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40593-015-0085-5
q2 · i? · associational · r2
Surrogate analysis in which each of the 40 students' time series was shuffled 40 times and DFA recomputed; a paired samples t-test compared surrogate to observed exponents. The article reports surrogates "produced smaller Hurst exponents than did the intact series" (t(39) = 156.90, p < 0.001).
"shuffled surrogates produced smaller Hurst exponents than did the intact series, t(39) = 156.90, p < 0.001, supporting the conclusion that the observed Hurst exponents accurately represent the observed patterns of persistence"
Discussion¶
Related Claims¶
- Hurst exponents are unrelated to the frequency of interacting with any specific game-based feature — related
- Students who interact more deterministically within iSTART-ME generate higher quality self-explanations during training — related
- Deterministic interaction patterns relate to delayed retention self-explanation quality but not posttest performance — related
- Hurst exponents do not significantly predict retention self-explanation quality over and above pretest scores — related
- Hurst exponents predict daily training self-explanation quality over and above pretest self-explanation ability — related
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
surrogate-analysis-validates-hurst-exponents |
title |
Surrogate analysis validates that observed Hurst exponents reflect genuine persistence rather than short-series artifacts |
description |
Surrogate analysis validates that observed Hurst exponents reflect genuine persistence rather than short-series artifacts |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
moderate |
newest_evidence |
2016 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-16 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
1 — erica-l-snow-2016 |
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