Sustained exposure to the most disadvantaged neighborhoods from age 2 to 17 substantially reduces the probability of high school graduation for both black and nonblack children¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · associational r3 · q2
Currency · newest study 2011 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2016: baselines and conditions change

Subclaims¶

q2 i? IPT-weighted estimates indicate continuous exposure to the least disadvantaged quintile would yield 96% graduation for black children versus 76% under sustained exposure to the most disadvantaged quintile. → Wodtke 2011 q2 i? For nonblack children, predicted graduation is 95% under least-disadvantaged exposure versus 87% under most-disadvantaged exposure. → Wodtke 2011 (2)

Evidence¶

Wodtke 2011¶

Wodtke, Geoffrey T.; Harding, David J.; Elwert, Felix. (2011). Neighborhood Effects in Temporal Perspective. American Sociological Review. https://doi.org/10.1177/0003122411420816

q2 · i? · associational · r3

Stabilized IPT-weighted marginal structural model estimates from the PSID cohort of children followed annually ages 2 to 17, with baseline covariates at race-specific means. Predicted probabilities show "about 96% would have graduated" versus 76% under sustained most-disadvantaged exposure.

"Estimates indicate that if black children had been continuously exposed to the least disadvantaged quintile of neighborhoods from age 2 to 17, about 96% would have graduated from high school by age 20. If the same population of black children had been exposed to the most disadvantaged neighborhoods in the U.S. for an extended period, only an estimated 76% would have graduated."

Wodtke 2011 (2)¶

Wodtke, Geoffrey T.; Harding, David J.; Elwert, Felix. (2011). Neighborhood Effects in Temporal Perspective. American Sociological Review. https://doi.org/10.1177/0003122411420816

q2 · i? · associational · r3

Same IPT-weighted PSID analysis, nonblack children. Predicted graduation falls from "an estimated 95%" to 87% comparing least to most disadvantaged quintile exposure across ages 2 to 17.

"Among nonblack children, an estimated 95% would have graduated from high school if they had been exposed to the least disadvantaged neighborhoods throughout the early life course compared to 87% if all had grown up in the most disadvantaged neighborhoods."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• IPT-weighted estimates of neighborhood effects on high school graduation are substantially larger than conventional regression-adjusted estimates — related
• The Moving to Opportunity experiment provides conservative estimates of neighborhood effects because it cannot capture the total effect of sustained exposure — related
• Neighborhood context is a transient ecological setting, with many families moving between neighborhood disadvantage quintiles during childhood — related
• The racial disparity in long-term exposure to the most disadvantaged neighborhoods is more pronounced than the disparity at any single age — related
• Neighborhood effects on graduation appear to operate in part through neighborhood effects on parents (time-varying family characteristics) — related