Choose the knower-level point estimate according to the purpose of the analysis¶

Strategy · All strategies
Evidence · 2 claims (2 for) · 1 study (1 design), q2 · 0 of 1 report an effect size · 2 claims rest on one study

Description¶

Because the Excel sheet outputs a full posterior distribution over knower levels, researchers who need a point estimate should choose it based on their research question. For most cases the mode is sensible, but when an argument would be undermined by misclassifying a CP-knower as a lower level, the article recommends using the highest knower level whose posterior probability exceeds the prior probability, which tends to sort ambiguous cases into higher levels.

Design Implications¶

Context¶

Requirements¶

• Access to the full posterior distribution and the prior probabilities used, both of which the Excel sheet provides

Constraints¶

• The article notes researchers with very particular needs could define a utility function, though a full discussion of that topic is outside the scope of the article

Target Learners¶

• young children completing the give-N task

Target Learning Goals¶

• accurate classification of children's number-knower levels for research analysis

Affordances¶

• Bayesian Knower Level Give N Model

Claims¶

• Fully Bayesian inference on the calibration data set assigned 423 sessions across six knower levels and estimated an evidence value v of 16.94 [+W]
• The Excel sheet's knower-level inference closely matches fully Bayesian inference, with no discrepancies in posterior maxima [+W]

Related Strategies¶

Examples¶

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Key Sources¶

• Negen, J., Sarnecka, B. W., & Lee, M. D. (2011). An Excel sheet for inferring children's number-knower levels from give-N data. Behavior Research Methods. https://doi.org/10.3758/s13428-011-0134-4