Under the 2025 norms, higher math growth expectations lower conditional growth percentiles for higher-growth students¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · theoretical r2 · q1
Currency · newest study 2026 · checked against its sources 2026-10-20 (automated, 1 of 1 entry) · not reviewed by a person · recheck by 2029: tool and model accuracy changes quickly

Subclaims¶

q1 i? For higher-growth students, the same RIT gain can rank lower in CGP under the 2025 norms because national math growth expectations are higher. → Hashim 2026

Evidence¶

Hashim 2026¶

Hashim, A. K. (2026). How post-COVID norm shifts change the meaning of MAP Growth metrics for school accountability. NWEA White Paper. https://www.nwea.org/research/publication/how-post%e2%80%91covid-norm-shifts-change-the-meaning-of-map-growth-metrics-for-school-accountability/

q1 · i? · theoretical · r2

The paper's illustrative math example in the teacher-evaluation section: a sixth-grade fall RIT of 240 with 8 points of growth ranks at the 50th CGP percentile under 2020 norms but the 34th under 2025 norms. Percentiles are descriptive, not effect sizes.

"a sixth-grade student with a fall RIT score of 240 who grows 8 points by spring would place at the 50th percentile under the prior, 2020 norms. But under the 2025 norms, the same RIT score gain only corresponds to a CGP of the 34th percentile."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Norm shifts can change teacher evaluation CGP outcomes independently of instructional quality — related
• Norm shifts can raise achievement percentiles for schools serving struggling students even when RIT gains and projected proficiency do not improve — related
• Under the 2025 MAP Growth norms, the same reading RIT score can rank higher in achievement percentile due to national declines in achievement — related
• Static percentile screening cut points carried across norm sets can under-identify students who remain below grade level — related
• The published norms allow normative interpretation of both status and fall-to-spring growth, e.g., an Algebra 1 student at the 55th fall percentile has an expected gain of 8 RIT with growth SD of 9, and an 11-RIT gain places the student at the 62nd growth percentile. — related
• Post-COVID norm shifts and NWEA's enhanced item selection algorithm change the interpretation of MAP Growth metrics for school accountability — a broader claim this one bears on
• Average growth maintains rather than improves a student's achievement percentile; growth must exceed average for a student to gain ground — related
• The 2025 MAP Growth Norms are based on national test samples from 2022–23 and 2023–24, and dashboard results are not comparable to reports using 2020 norms — related
• The 2020 norms report states the MAP Growth scale remains stable while status patterns shifted relative to the 2015 norms — related