ACT scores show significant subgroup misprediction by race, ethnicity, and gender that HSGPA models do not, and school-level variance is smaller among students with the same ACT score than the same HSGPA¶
Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · associationalr3·q2
Currency · newest study 2019 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2022: tool and model accuracy changes quickly
Subclaims¶
Reading the evidence codes
q is the design tier, i the impact, n the sample, and the kind with its r
the rigour judged within that kind: what each code means.
This claim: no standardized effect is recorded in observations/ for it yet, so no benchmark reading is possible.
q2 i? Subgroup differences in college graduation rates are significantly different from zero for Asian and male students in models controlling for ACT scores, but not in models controlling for HSGPAs. → Allensworth 2019
q2 i? ACT scores explain little school-level variance (intercept variance 0.411 vs 0.446 without ACT), and school-level variance is smaller among students with the same ACT score (0.265 to 0.343) than the same HSGPA, though still considerable. → Allensworth 2019 (2)
Evidence¶
Allensworth 2019¶
Allensworth, Elaine M., & Clark, Kallie. (2019). Are GPAs an Inconsistent Measure of College Readiness across High Schools? Examining Assumptions about Grades versus Standardized Test Scores. University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/are-gpas-inconsistent-measure-achievement-across-high-schools-examining-assumptions
q2 · i? · associational · r3
Comparison of demographic coefficients across the ACT and HSGPA hierarchical models (n=17,753). The article states ACT scores provide less accurate predictions of college success by race, ethnicity, and gender than HSGPAs.
"The subgroup differences in college graduation rates are significantly different from zero for Asian and male students in the models that control for ACT scores, but the demographic coefficients are not significantly different from zero in the models that control for HSGPAs."
Allensworth 2019 (2)¶
Allensworth, Elaine M., & Clark, Kallie. (2019). Are GPAs an Inconsistent Measure of College Readiness across High Schools? Examining Assumptions about Grades versus Standardized Test Scores. University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/are-gpas-inconsistent-measure-achievement-across-high-schools-examining-assumptions
q2 · i? · associational · r3
ACT-binned models with school random effects (n=17,753). The intercept variance component (0.411) is similar to a controls-only model (0.446), showing ACT explains little school-level variance and does not induce more.
"School-level variance is smaller among students with the same ACT score than among students with the same HSGPA. Still, there is considerable variation in college graduation rates by high school among students with the same ACT score (0.265 to 0.343)."
Discussion¶
Related Claims¶
- Adding ACT scores to models with HSGPA contributes little to the prediction of college graduation and does not reduce between-school variability — related
- Students with the same HSGPA or the same ACT score graduate from college at different rates depending on which high school they attended — related
- School average ACT scores predict college graduation for students with the same individual HSGPA and ACT score, reducing between-school variance by 42 percent, while school poverty is not significant once average ACT is included — related
- Among students with the same high grades, ACT scores differ substantially by race/ethnicity, a pattern the report flags as possible racial bias — related
- College graduation rates vary significantly across high schools among students with the same HSGPA, and about one-fourth of that school-level variation is induced by comparing students with similar HSGPAs — related
- Student test effort differs substantially across student gender and racial subgroups — related
- Systematic racial, ethnic and gender differences in grades persist among students with the same test scores, attendance, courses and teachers — related
- Combining ACT scores with HSGPAs reduces high school variance in college graduation rates relative to HSGPA-only models — related
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
act-subgroup-misprediction-and-school-variance |
title |
ACT scores show significant subgroup misprediction by race, ethnicity, and gender that HSGPA models do not, and school-level variance is smaller among students with the same ACT score than the same HSGPA |
description |
ACT scores show significant subgroup misprediction by race, ethnicity, and gender that HSGPA models do not, and school-level variance is smaller among students with the same ACT score than the same HSGPA |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
moderate |
newest_evidence |
2019 |
recheck_by |
2022 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-09 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
2 — allensworth-2019, allensworth-2019-2 |
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