Students with the same HSGPA or the same ACT score graduate from college at different rates depending on which high school they attended¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · associational r2–r3 · q2–q3
Currency · newest study 2020 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q3 i? There is significant high school variance in graduation rates within every HSGPA bin and considerable variance within ACT bins. → Allensworth 2019

q2 i? College graduation rates six years after initial enrollment vary substantially across high schools among students with identical HSGPAs or ACT scores. → Allensworth 2020

Evidence¶

Allensworth 2019¶

Allensworth, E. M., & Clark, K. (2020). High School GPAs and ACT Scores as Predictors of College Completion: Examining Assumptions about Consistency across High Schools. Educational Researcher, 49(3), 198–211. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/high-school-gpas-and-act-scores-as-predictors-of-college-completion doi:10.3102/0013189x20902110

q3 · i? · associational · r3

Binned nonparametric HLM models (Table 3) estimating school-level random effects for CPS graduates of 2006-2009 cohorts. Students with a 3.25-3.5 HSGPA at schools one SD below the mean graduate at rates similar to students with 2.75-3.0 HSGPAs at typical schools.

"There is significant high school variance in college graduation rates for students in each HSGPA bin. For example, among students with HSGPAs between 3.25-3.5, a two-standard deviation range of high school effects is 0.144 ± 0.575 in log-odds in the conditional model."

Allensworth 2020¶

Allensworth, E. M., & Clark, K. (2020). High school GPAs and ACT scores as predictors of college completion: Examining assumptions about consistency across high schools. Educational Researcher, 49(3), 198-211. doi:10.3102/0013189x20902110 https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/high-school-GPAs-and-ACT-scores-as-predictors-of-college-completion-er-article

q2 · i? · associational · r2

The study's overview reports its central finding: "students with the same HSGPA or the same ACT score graduate at very different rates based on which high school they attended," based on graduation six years after initial enrollment.

"We found students with the same HSGPA or the same ACT score graduate at very different rates based on which high school they attended."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• SAT scores underpredict the academic performance of high school girls, who average lower scores than boys despite higher grades — the general claim this finding bears on, with the studies behind it

• Adding ACT scores to models with HSGPA does not improve prediction of college graduation or reduce high-school variance — related

• ACT scores show significant subgroup misprediction by race, ethnicity, and gender that HSGPA models do not, and school-level variance is smaller among students with the same ACT score than the same HSGPA — related
• The review reports that equally qualified Chicago graduates' college persistence differed systematically depending on the institutional graduation rates of the colleges they attended — related
• CPS graduates' grades are fairly consistent across high schools for students with similar test scores, challenging the myth that an A means less at lower-performing schools — related
• Both HSGPA and ACT scores leave large high school effects on college graduation unexplained, which the study recommends measuring and publishing directly — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
• College graduation rates vary significantly across high schools among students with the same HSGPA, and about one-fourth of that school-level variation is induced by comparing students with similar HSGPAs — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• School average ACT scores predict college graduation for students with the same individual HSGPA and ACT score, reducing between-school variance by 42 percent, while school poverty is not significant once average ACT is included — related
• Combining ACT scores with HSGPAs reduces high school variance in college graduation rates relative to HSGPA-only models — related
• School-average ACT scores strongly predict individual college graduation, doubling the odds per standard deviation — related
• High school GPA is the strongest predictor of college admission, persistence, and graduation, more than ACT or SAT scores — related