Estimates of cohort achievement trends vary substantially by survey agent, with PISA reporting negative math trends¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r2 · q3
Currency · newest study 2022 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q3 i? Agent estimates of decadal change range from –0.10sd to 0.27sd in math and –0.02sd to 0.12sd in reading, with PISA estimating a negative math trend at age 15. → M. Danish Shakeel · Paul E. Peterson 2022

Evidence¶

M. Danish Shakeel · Paul E. Peterson 2022¶

M. Danish Shakeel · Paul E. Peterson. (2022). A Half Century of Progress in US Student Achievement: Agency and Flynn Effects, Ethnic and SES Differences. Educational Psychology Review. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10648-021-09657-y

q3 · i? · associational · r2

Agency Effects results compare the four survey agents. PISA estimates a median trend of –0.10sd in math at age 15 while NAEP estimates 0.27sd for 8th grade, "a difference of 0.37sd in m and 0.14sd in rd" despite similar student ages.

"The range of estimates is 0.37sd per decade in m and 0.14sd in rd (m: –0.10sd to 0.27sd, rd: –0.02sd to 0.12sd). (See Table 1) NAEP and TIMSS-PIRLS estimate the steepest upward trends."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Achievement progress is steeper for students tested at younger ages, especially in math — related
• US cohort achievement trends per decade are steeper in math (median 0.19sd) than in reading (median 0.04sd) across linked surveys — related
• Elementary/middle-grade math scores improved incrementally across all three eras while reading scores remained fairly flat for two decades — related
• Fourth-grade cohorts in other countries also show larger math than reading gains, suggesting moderators more general than the United States — related
• For cohorts born since 1990, reading progress increased while math progress slowed — related
• Over a decade of legally mandated synthetic phonics in England has not improved standardized reading outcomes (PIRLS, PISA, SATs) — related
• The study examines the social gradient in students’ achievement motivation through an integrative data analysis spanning two decades of PISA data — related