Four-year-olds infer unobserved hidden causes when observed variables cannot explain the evidence¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · review r3 · q2–q3
Currency · newest study 2012 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2017: baselines and conditions change

Subclaims¶

q3 i? When interventions ruled out direct causal links between two covarying puppets, 4-year-olds posited an unobserved common cause and searched for it. → Gopnik 2012 q2 i? Children facing an indeterministic machine infer a hidden variable responsible for its failures. → Gopnik 2012 (2)

Evidence¶

Gopnik 2012¶

Gopnik, A., & Wellman, H. M. (2012). Reconstructing constructivism: Causal models, Bayesian learning mechanisms and the theory theory. Psychological Bulletin, 138(6), 1085-1108. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0028044

q3 · i? · review · r3

In Gopnik et al. (2004), puppets W and I covaried but interventions on each had no effect on the other, ruling out W→I and I→W. Children chose 'something else' as the cause, unlike in a control condition, and many searched behind the apparatus for the hidden cause.

"So 4-year-olds had concluded that some unobserved common cause, U, influenced W and I, and therefore W←U→I."

Gopnik 2012 (2)¶

Gopnik, A., & Wellman, H. M. (2012). Reconstructing constructivism: Causal models, Bayesian learning mechanisms and the theory theory. Psychological Bulletin, 138(6), 1085-1108. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0028044

q2 · i? · review · r3

The review attributes to Schulz and Somerville (2006) the finding that children exposed to a machine activating only 2 of 6 times posited a hidden variable behind the inconsistency, extending unobserved-cause inference to probabilistic evidence.

"Similarly, Schulz and Somerville (2006) found that when children saw an indeterministic machine – that is a machine that went off only 2 of 6 times--they inferred that some hidden variable was responsible for the failures."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Preschoolers make probabilistic backward-blocking causal inferences, with capacities appearing by 18 months — related
• Children aged 2-4 infer causal structure from covariation and use it to design effective interventions — related
• Children extend statistical causal learning to psychological causes, inferring others' desires by 20 months — related
• Children integrate prior knowledge with new statistical evidence in a Bayesian way, overturning initially likely hypotheses