Uncontrolled estimates of retention effects on dropout are larger than propensity-adjusted estimates, suggesting confounding inflates naive associations¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · causal r2 · q2 · i2 medium
Currency · newest study 2018 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i2 Without adjusting for baseline confounders, the odds ratio for dropout versus graduation was 3.50, larger than the adjusted estimates, consistent with selection effects biasing naive estimates upward. → Hughes 2018

Evidence¶

Hughes 2018¶

Hughes, J. N., West, S. G., Kim, H., & Bauer, S. S. (2018). Effect of Early Grade Retention on School Completion: A Prospective Study. Journal of Educational Psychology, 110(7), 974-991. https://doi.org/10.1037/edu0000243

q2 · i2 · causal · r2

Authors' interpretive comparison in the Discussion between the unadjusted association and the propensity-adjusted estimates in the same sample. The article reports "a substantially larger odds ratio = 3.50" unadjusted, and offers equating on confounds as one explanation for the smaller adjusted effect.

"In our analysis in which we did not adjust for any potentially confounding baseline factors, we found a substantially larger odds ratio = 3.50."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Retention in grades 1-5 increases the odds of dropping out of high school rather than graduating, above propensity to be retained — related
• Confounding may explain the large retention effects reported for the Course Signals early warning system — related
• Prior analyses with this sample found no harm to achievement or motivation at the transition to high school, yet retention still raises dropout odds — related