Retention in grades 1-5 increases the odds of dropping out of high school rather than graduating, above propensity to be retained¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · causal r2 · q3 · i2 medium
Currency · newest study 2018 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q3 i2 Among academically at-risk students equated on 65 grade-1 covariates, retained students were much more likely than continuously promoted students to drop out rather than complete high school (odds ratio = 2.67). → Hughes 2018 q3 i2 The effect replicated with a covariate balancing propensity score approach (odds ratio = 2.35, p = .01). → Hughes 2018 (2)

Evidence¶

Hughes 2018¶

Hughes, J. N., West, S. G., Kim, H., & Bauer, S. S. (2018). Effect of Early Grade Retention on School Completion: A Prospective Study. Journal of Educational Psychology, 110(7), 974-991. https://doi.org/10.1037/edu0000243

q3 · i2 · causal · r2

Prospective 14-year multinomial logistic regression on 100 imputed datasets, using logistic-regression propensity score weights equating 256 retained and 478 promoted students on 65 grade-1 covariates. The article reports "a significant increase in the likelihood of dropping out of high school" with odds ratio = 2.67 in the accompanying sentence.

"For the high school graduation vs. drop out contrast, retention led to a significant increase in the likelihood of dropping out of high school, estimate = 0.98, SE = 0.34, z = 2.94, p = .003."

Hughes 2018 (2)¶

Hughes, J. N., West, S. G., Kim, H., & Bauer, S. S. (2018). Effect of Early Grade Retention on School Completion: A Prospective Study. Journal of Educational Psychology, 110(7), 974-991. https://doi.org/10.1037/edu0000243

q3 · i2 · causal · r2

Sensitivity check using the parallel multinomial logistic analysis with covariate balancing propensity scores, averaged over the 100 imputed datasets. The article reports retention "had a similar statistically significant effect" with odds ratio = 2.35.

"Of importance, for the high school graduation versus dropout contrast, retention had a similar statistically significant effect, estimate = 0.86, SE = 0.33, z = 2.59, p = .01, odds ratio = 2.35."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Uncontrolled estimates of retention effects on dropout are larger than propensity-adjusted estimates, suggesting confounding inflates naive associations — related
• Prepolicy retained students dropped out earlier, but postpolicy retained students showed elevated dropout risk throughout their remaining years rather than at early ages — related
• The negative effect of retention on dropping out versus graduating is larger for Black students than White students — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Retention at the promotion gate increased the likelihood of dropping out by about 8 percentage points by age 17 and 13 points by age 19 — related
• Prior analyses with this sample found no harm to achievement or motivation at the transition to high school, yet retention still raises dropout odds — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
• The postpolicy retention effect on dropout was smaller than the prepolicy retention relationship, but its systemwide impact was larger — related
• Early grade retention did not significantly affect the likelihood of earning a GED versus graduating from high school — related