Projected fall 2020 reading gains for returning students are approximately 63 to 68% of a typical school year's learning gains¶
Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associationalr2·q2
Currency · newest study 2020 · checked against its sources 2026-10-16 (automated, 1 of 1 entry) · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2025: baselines and conditions change
Subclaims¶
Reading the evidence codes
q is the design tier, i the impact, n the sample, and the kind with its r
the rigour judged within that kind: what each code means.
This claim: no standardized effect is recorded in observations/ for it yet, so no benchmark reading is possible.
q2 i? Under the study's projections, students are likely to return in fall 2020 with approximately 63-68% of the learning gains in reading relative to a typical school year. → Kuhfeld 2020
Evidence¶
Kuhfeld 2020¶
Kuhfeld, M., Soland, J., Tarasawa, B., Johnson, A., Ruzek, E., & Liu, J. (2020). Projecting the potential impact of COVID-19 school closures on academic achievement. Educational Researcher, 49(8), 549–565. https://doi.org/10.3102/0013189X20965918
q2 · i? · associational · r2
The projection analysis, based on estimates from prior literature on missing school and analyses of typical summer learning patterns, projects students return with "approximately 63-68% of the learning gains in reading relative to a typical school year." No effect size is printed.
"Under these projections, students are likely to return in fall 2020 with approximately 63-68% of the learning gains in reading relative to a typical school year"
Discussion¶
Related Claims¶
- Projected fall 2020 mathematics gains for returning students are approximately 37 to 50% of a typical school year's learning gains — related
- Black, AIAN, and Latinx students made 55-68% of typical math gains and 73-86% of typical reading gains during the pandemic, while Asian American students made 88-100% — related
- Pandemic-period gains from fall 2019 to fall 2021 fell short of pre-pandemic growth norms — related
- In almost all grades, most students made some learning gains in both reading and math since the COVID-19 pandemic started — related
- Projected COVID-19 learning loss was not universal, with the top third of students potentially making gains in reading — related
- Summer learning loss patterns are used to project the potential impact of COVID-19 school closures on student academic achievement — a broader claim this one bears on
- COVID-19 closures left schools and districts serving 55.1 million students in an unprecedented time — related
- Research on seasonal learning and summer learning loss offers insights into the potential achievement impacts of COVID-19 school closures — a broader claim this one bears on
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
covid-closures-projected-reading-gains-63-68-percent |
aliases |
covid-projections-reading-63-68-percent-gains |
title |
Projected fall 2020 reading gains for returning students are approximately 63 to 68% of a typical school year's learning gains |
description |
Projected fall 2020 reading gains for returning students are approximately 63 to 68% of a typical school year's learning gains |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
weak |
newest_evidence |
2020 |
source_checked |
2026-10-16 |
recheck_by |
2025 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-08 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
1 — kuhfeld-2020 |
Frontmatter is the page's machine-readable record — see the Schema & Guide.