Model simulations imply Covid-19 school closures plus recession raise the future share of children without a high school degree by 3.8% and reduce the college-degree share by 2.7%¶
Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · theoreticalr3·q2
Currency · newest study 2020 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2025: baselines and conditions change
Subclaims¶
Reading the evidence codes
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q2 i? Across children aged 4 to 14 at the shock, the model implies a 3.8% increase in the future share without a high school degree and a 2.7% reduction in the college-degree share, with average earnings losses of about −1%. → Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln 2020
Evidence¶
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln 2020¶
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln, Dirk Krueger, Alexander Ludwig, and Irina Popova. (2020). The Long-Term Distributional and Welfare Effects of Covid-19 School Closures. NBER Working Paper 27773. http://www.nber.org/papers/w27773
q2 · i? · theoretical · r3
Structural life-cycle simulation (partial equilibrium) of a one-time six-month school closure shock plus recession income shock, reported in the introduction. The model "implies an increase in the future share of children without a high school degree of 3.8%" and the college reduction of 2.7%; earnings losses "amount to about −1%".
"On average (across children aged 4 to 14 when the shock occurs), the model implies an increase in the future share of children without a high school degree of 3.8% and a reduction of the share of children with a college degree of 2.7%"
Discussion¶
Related Claims¶
- Average child welfare loss from the schooling and income shock is −0.75% in consumption-equivalent terms, with 87% attributed to the school closures themselves — related
- Children with poorer parents suffer more, and children of high school educated parents experience the largest welfare losses — related
- Adverse impacts of school closures are most pronounced for younger school-age children, driven by self-productivity and dynamic complementarity in human capital production — related
- Parents endogenously raise investments in response to school closures but do not fully offset the lost public inputs — related
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
covid-school-closure-model-attainment-losses |
title |
Model simulations imply Covid-19 school closures plus recession raise the future share of children without a high school degree by 3.8% and reduce the college-degree share by 2.7% |
description |
Model simulations imply Covid-19 school closures plus recession raise the future share of children without a high school degree by 3.8% and reduce the college-degree share by 2.7% |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
weak |
newest_evidence |
2020 |
recheck_by |
2025 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-16 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
1 — nicola-fuchs-schündeln-2020 |
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