Indicator performance differs across EL subgroups: former and late-arriving ELs had stronger ninth-grade GPAs and attendance than never ELs, while long-term ELs without IEPs had much lower GPAs¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2025 · checked against its sources 2026-10-17 (automated, 2 of 2 entries) · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Former and late-arriving ELs showed stronger ninth-grade GPAs and attendance than never ELs; long-term ELs without IEPs had much lower GPAs, though 22% of long-term ELs with IEPs had A-B GPAs. → Allensworth 2025 q2 i? Active ELs were far more likely to score low or very low on English-language standardized tests, ranging from 63% of late-arriving ELs to 93% of long-term ELs with IEPs. → Allensworth 2025 (2)

Evidence¶

Allensworth 2025¶

Allensworth, E.M., de la Torre, M., Franklin, K., & Xu, J. (2025). Predictive power of grades and other indicators for English Learners. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://edworkingpapers.com/ai25-1241

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Descriptive statistics (Table 1, fall 2008–2017 cohorts) on ninth-grade outcomes by EL subgroup. Former and late-arriving ELs had 33% with A-B GPAs versus 29% of never ELs; long-term ELs without IEPs had 14%.

"Long-term English Learners without IEPs had much lower GPAs than other students (14% had A-B GPA), while 22% of long-term English Learners with an IEP did."

Allensworth 2025 (2)¶

Allensworth, E.M., de la Torre, M., Franklin, K., & Xu, J. (2025). Predictive power of grades and other indicators for English Learners. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://edworkingpapers.com/ai25-1241

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Descriptive distribution of standardized test scores given in English by subgroup; 63% of late-arriving ELs also scored low or very low. These are descriptive percentages with no inferential tests printed.

"Seventy-five percent of long-term English Learners without IEPs and 93% of long-term English Learners with IEPs scored in the low or very low range, while 30% of never English Learners and 27% of former English Learners scored in the low or very low range."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Long-term and late-arriving English Learners were considerably less likely to enroll in four-year colleges than their peers — related
• Attainment likelihood thresholds differ: ELs with GPA above 2.0 had ~90% graduation rates except students with IEPs, and only active ELs needed attendance above 95% to be very likely to graduate — related
• Among four-year college enrollees, former and late-arriving English Learners persisted at or above district-average rates while long-term English Learners with IEPs persisted at substantially lower rates — related
• Late-arriving English Learners had cumulative GPAs similar to the district average but substantially lower SAT scores — related
• Combining GPA or course failure rates with attendance provides the best prediction of high school graduation for most EL groups, while GPA plus test scores best predicts college degree attainment — related
• Former English Learners had higher Freshman OnTrack and graduation rates than the district average in Chicago Public Schools — related
• Long-term English Learners without IEPs had the lowest Freshman OnTrack rate and substantially lower graduation rates than district average — related
• K-12 officials increasingly attend to postsecondary outcomes but many are unsure how best to use the data — related