Combining GPA or course failure rates with attendance provides the best prediction of high school graduation for most EL groups, while GPA plus test scores best predicts college degree attainment¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2025 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · recheck by 2028: tool and model accuracy changes quickly

Subclaims¶

q2 i? GPA-plus-attendance or course-failure-plus-attendance combinations gave the best graduation prediction for most EL groups, except long-term ELs with IEPs. → Allensworth 2025 q2 i? GPA combined with test scores was the best predictor of eventual college degree attainment for all EL groups. → Allensworth 2025 (2)

Evidence¶

Allensworth 2025¶

Allensworth, E.M., de la Torre, M., Franklin, K., & Xu, J. (2025). Predictive power of grades and other indicators for English Learners. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://edworkingpapers.com/ai25-1241

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Logistic regression models predicting graduation separately by EL subgroup, comparing pseudo-R2 across indicator combinations. Combination indicators best predicted graduation except for "long-term English Learners with IEPs."

"Combining GPA and attendance data, or course failure rates and attendance data, provided the best prediction of high school graduation for most English Learner groups. (except long-term English Learners with IEPs)"

Allensworth 2025 (2)¶

Allensworth, E.M., de la Torre, M., Franklin, K., & Xu, J. (2025). Predictive power of grades and other indicators for English Learners. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://edworkingpapers.com/ai25-1241

q2 · i? · associational · r2

The same modeling approach identified GPA plus test scores as the best combination for predicting college degree attainment across all EL groups. The study notes this relationship partially weakens when comparing students within the same high schools.

"The combination of GPA with test scores was the best prediction of which students eventually attained a college degree for all English Learner groups."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Attainment likelihood thresholds differ: ELs with GPA above 2.0 had ~90% graduation rates except students with IEPs, and only active ELs needed attendance above 95% to be very likely to graduate — related
• Indicator performance differs across EL subgroups: former and late-arriving ELs had stronger ninth-grade GPAs and attendance than never ELs, while long-term ELs without IEPs had much lower GPAs — related
• Only ninth-grade students with at least a 3.0 GPA had greater than a 1-in-4 chance of attaining a college credential, across all groups except long-term English Learners with IEPs — related
• Combining GPA with attendance, or course failure rates with attendance, gives the best prediction of high school graduation for most English Learner groups but not long-term English Learners with IEPs — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
• GPAs are the most predictive single indicator of high school graduation, college enrollment, and degree completion for all English Learner groups, followed by attendance and course failure rates — related
• GPA combined with test scores was the best prediction of college degree attainment for all English Learner groups, but the test-score relationship partly reflects school composition — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Course grades and GPA predict high school and college outcomes better than standardized test scores or coursework — related
• In a Chicago middle-grades study, the combination of grades and attendance provided the best prediction of high school on-track rates, and adding test scores and grit measures did not further improve prediction — related
• College readiness is best understood as a property of interactions between students and the college context, not only individual skills — related
• Contextualized high school GPA had a stronger relationship with college success than contextualized standardized test scores (Bastedo et al., attributed) — related
• Attendance and effort, more than test scores or demographics, drive course grades, GPA, course failure, graduation, and college readiness — related
• Course performance indicators predict ELL graduation better than ELL-specific indicators such as proficiency level or education interruptions — related