K-12 public school enrollment is declining and projected to fall 3.7 percent by 2031, reducing funding in the 35 states and DC that use student-based funding formulas¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2025 · checked against its sources 2026-10-20 (automated, 2 of 2 entries) · not reviewed by a person · recheck by 2030: baselines and conditions change

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Thirty-five states and Washington, DC use student-based funding formulas whose allocations decline with enrollment, and U.S. public school enrollment is projected to decline 3.7 percent by 2031 to 46.9 million students. → Caparas 2025

Evidence¶

Caparas 2025¶

Caparas, R., Jarmolowski, H., Krausen, K., & McClellan, P. (2025). How well will your state's schools weather the next financial storm? WestEd. https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED673492

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Descriptive analysis of national enrollment and funding-formula data, citing Fischer & Duncombe (2024). The brief reports that "Thirty-five states and Washington, DC, use student-based funding formulas" so funding declines with enrollment.

"Thirty-five states and Washington, DC, use student-based funding formulas (Fischer & Duncombe, 2024), meaning that their funding is closely linked to enrollment—and declines accordingly."

Caparas 2025 (2)¶

Caparas, R., Jarmolowski, H., Krausen, K., & McClellan, P. (2025). How well will your state's schools weather the next financial storm? WestEd. https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED673492

q2 · i? · review · r2

Projection of national enrollment based on NCES data as reported in the brief: by 2031 enrollment will "decline further—by 3.7 percent" to 46.9 million, the lowest level since 2000, driven by a shrinking school-age population.

"It is projected that by 2031, public school will decline further—by 3.7 percent—due primarily to a decrease in the school-age population."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• US public education could lose $11.5 billion in annual state revenues by 2030–31 as enrollment declines, with 40 states and DC projected to see further declines — related
• 68 percent of K–12 districts experienced enrollment declines between 2018–19 and 2023–24 while still operating roughly the same number of schools — related
• Rainy day funds buffer education budgets during downturns, and the median state rainy day fund balance is projected to reach 14.4 percent of general fund expenditures by the end of fiscal year 2025 — related
• Fragile enrollment created a downward spiral linking enrollment loss to budget cuts and steeper financial decline — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Budget cuts reduced North Carolina's teaching force by 5 percent from 2009 to 2018 even as enrollment grew, with rural districts losing more than 20 percent of teachers in a single year and 1,621 unfilled vacancies in 2017-18 — related
• Structural and fiscal conditions—including grade-3 class-size incentive cliffs and declining enrollment—jeopardize the bilingual teacher pipeline and program sustainability — related
• As total enrollment shrinks, the shares of English Learners, students with disabilities, and low-income students are growing, concentrating higher-need populations in districts with less funding — related
• Thirty-two states and DC guarantee base per-pupil funding, and state legislation can add year-to-year funding guarantees such as California's Proposition 98 — related