Rainy day funds buffer education budgets during downturns, and the median state rainy day fund balance is projected to reach 14.4 percent of general fund expenditures by the end of fiscal year 2025¶
Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associationalr1·q2
Currency · newest study 2025 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · recheck by 2030: baselines and conditions change
Subclaims¶
Reading the evidence codes
q is the design tier, i the impact, n the sample, and the kind with its r
the rigour judged within that kind: what each code means.
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q2 i? Median state rainy day fund balances have grown every year since the aftermath of the Great Recession, projected at 14.4 percent of general fund expenditures by end of FY 2025. → Caparas 2025
Evidence¶
Caparas 2025¶
Caparas, R., Jarmolowski, H., Krausen, K., & McClellan, P. (2025). How well will your state's schools weather the next financial storm? WestEd. https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED673492
q2 · i? · associational · r1
Descriptive fiscal survey data (NASBO, cited as Vesey White, 2024) reported in the brief: the "median rainy day fund balance as a percentage of general fund expenditures has grown every year" since the Great Recession's aftermath, reaching a projected 14.4 percent.
"the median rainy day fund balance as a percentage of general fund expenditures has grown every year since the aftermath of the Great Recession, with a median balance projected to be 14.4 percent by the end of the 2025 fiscal year (Vesey White, 2024)."
Discussion¶
Related Claims¶
- State caps on district reserves, such as California's 10 percent and New York's 4 percent caps, can limit districts' ability to budget conservatively for economic hard times — related
- K-12 public school enrollment is declining and projected to fall 3.7 percent by 2031, reducing funding in the 35 states and DC that use student-based funding formulas — related
- As of fiscal year 2017, 22 states still provided less per-pupil K–12 education funding than in 2008–09 — related
- Because California education funding relies heavily on the personal income tax, state education funds are highly susceptible to economic fluctuations and vulnerable during recessions — related
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
rainy-day-fund-median-14-4-percent-2025 |
title |
Rainy day funds buffer education budgets during downturns, and the median state rainy day fund balance is projected to reach 14.4 percent of general fund expenditures by the end of fiscal year 2025 |
description |
Rainy day funds buffer education budgets during downturns, and the median state rainy day fund balance is projected to reach 14.4 percent of general fund expenditures by the end of fiscal year 2025 |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
weak |
newest_evidence |
2025 |
recheck_by |
2030 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-09 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
1 — caparas-2025 |
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