The estimated net cost of the Universal ESA expansion is $242.7 million in 2022–23, rising to $295.2 million in 2023–24¶
Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associationalr2·q2
Currency · newest study 2024 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · recheck by 2027: local conditions change quickly
Subclaims¶
Reading the evidence codes
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q2 i? The report estimates the net cost of the Universal ESA program at $242.7 million in 2022–23, increasing to $295.2 million so far in 2023–24, with non-public school students accounting for the largest share. → Griffith 2024
Evidence¶
Griffith 2024¶
Griffith, M., & Burns, D. (2024). Understanding the cost of universal school vouchers: An analysis of Arizona's Empowerment Scholarship Account program. Learning Policy Institute. https://doi.org/10.54300/682.951
q2 · i? · associational · r2
Net-cost estimation (Table 6) using a weighted average Universal ESA value of $6,915 per student: $222.5 million from 32,173 non-public school students, $11 million from NSA district students, $4.9 million from Basic State Aid district students, and a $275,000 savings from charter leavers.
"Thus, our estimated net cost to the state of the Universal ESA program is $242.7 million in 2022–23, increasing to $295.2 million so far in 2023–24."
Discussion¶
Related Claims¶
- Arizona's ESA voucher program grew 409%, from 12,127 to 61,689 students, between the 2021–22 and 2022–23 school years, with nearly all growth from the new Universal ESA — related
- English learners are strongly underrepresented in the ESA program: 0.6% of ESA students versus 9.2% of public school students statewide — related
- The state's lack of publicly available ESA data hinders cost estimation; the report recommends publishing enrollment, expenditure, and transfer data — related
- Total ESA program cost reached about $587 million in 2022–23, a 211% increase over the prior year, equal to 8.8% of Basic Student Aid funding — related
- The large majority (71.2%) of Universal ESA users had not previously attended a public school, adding new costs to the state education budget — related
- The Universal ESA amount exceeds per-pupil district funding, so elementary students leaving district schools each add $425 in state cost, while students leaving charter schools save the state $752 each — related
- ESA programs have grown rapidly, serving over 326,400 students across 13 states as of the 2023/24 school year — related
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
esa-net-cost-242-7-million-expansion |
title |
The estimated net cost of the Universal ESA expansion is $242.7 million in 2022–23, rising to $295.2 million in 2023–24 |
description |
The estimated net cost of the Universal ESA expansion is $242.7 million in 2022–23, rising to $295.2 million in 2023–24 |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
weak |
newest_evidence |
2024 |
recheck_by |
2027 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-10 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
1 — griffith-2024 |
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