The large majority (71.2%) of Universal ESA users had not previously attended a public school, adding new costs to the state education budget¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2024 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · recheck by 2027: local conditions change quickly

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Of students taking the new Universal ESA, 71.2% did not previously attend a public school, meaning they represent new costs to the state education budget. → Griffith 2024 q2 i? By the end of 2022–23, 32,173 of the students in the ESA program were not previously enrolled in Arizona public schools, versus 29,516 (48%) who were. → Griffith 2024 (2)

Evidence¶

Griffith 2024¶

Griffith, M., & Burns, D. (2024). Understanding the cost of universal school vouchers: An analysis of Arizona's Empowerment Scholarship Account program. Learning Policy Institute. https://doi.org/10.54300/682.951

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Enrollment-composition analysis using Arizona Department of Education quarterly reports on students' previous enrollment. The report finds "the large majority (71.2%) did not previously attend a public school" among Universal ESA users.

"Of the students taking advantage of the new Universal ESA, the large majority (71.2%) did not previously attend a public school, thus adding new costs to the state education budget."

Griffith 2024 (2)¶

Griffith, M., & Burns, D. (2024). Understanding the cost of universal school vouchers: An analysis of Arizona's Empowerment Scholarship Account program. Learning Policy Institute. https://doi.org/10.54300/682.951

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Analysis of AdE's 3rd quarter 2022–23 report, the most recent quarter reporting previous enrollment. Students not previously enrolled could include privately educated, homeschooled, or newly arrived students, per the report.

"of the total 61,689 students in the ESA program (both Targeted and Universal), 29,516 students (48%) were previously enrolled in public education (district and charter), and 32,173 students (52%) were not previously enrolled in Arizona public schools."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Arizona's ESA voucher program grew 409%, from 12,127 to 61,689 students, between the 2021–22 and 2022–23 school years, with nearly all growth from the new Universal ESA — related
• English learners are strongly underrepresented in the ESA program: 0.6% of ESA students versus 9.2% of public school students statewide — related
• The state's lack of publicly available ESA data hinders cost estimation; the report recommends publishing enrollment, expenditure, and transfer data — related
• The estimated net cost of the Universal ESA expansion is $242.7 million in 2022–23, rising to $295.2 million in 2023–24 — related
• The Universal ESA amount exceeds per-pupil district funding, so elementary students leaving district schools each add $425 in state cost, while students leaving charter schools save the state $752 each — related
• Total ESA program cost reached about $587 million in 2022–23, a 211% increase over the prior year, equal to 8.8% of Basic Student Aid funding