Most four-cell PDW payoff matrices fulfill the intuitive wagering-on-correctness properties¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · quant-synthesis r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2024 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · recheck by 2027: tool and model accuracy changes quickly

Subclaims¶

q2 i? 96% of reviewed four-cell payoff matrices (75 of 78) fulfill the four properties that make high wagers profitable when confidence is high and wagering a genuine risk. → Lorenz Weise 2024

Evidence¶

Lorenz Weise 2024¶

Lorenz Weise. (2024). Payoff designs in post-decision wagering: a systematic review. Metacognition and Learning. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11409-024-09411-z

q2 · i? · quant-synthesis · r2

Quantitative synthesis of 111 payoff designs extracted from 63 publications included in the systematic review. The review reports that "The four properties a) through d) are fulfilled by 75 out of 78 four cell matrices (96%)", with the remaining three being adjusted-wagering designs.

"The four properties a) through d) are fulfilled by 75 out of 78 four cell matrices (96%). The remaining 3 matrices will be discussed under the paragraph 'adjusted wagering'."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Many four-cell PDW payoff matrices imply an optimal strategy of always wagering high — related
• In standard free-choice wagering schemes only the lowest and highest wagers are ever optimal — related
• No-loss gambling and gains-only designs avoid loss-aversion complications in PDW — related
• Participants frequently deviate from optimal wagering strategies implied by payoff matrices — related