In standard free-choice wagering schemes only the lowest and highest wagers are ever optimal¶
Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · quant-synthesisr2·q1
Currency · newest study 2024 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person
Subclaims¶
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q1 i? In free-choice schemes where wins increase with wager size and losses mirror wins, only the lowest and highest wagering categories are ever optimal strategies, encouraging under- or overstating of confidence. → Lorenz Weise 2024
Evidence¶
Lorenz Weise 2024¶
Lorenz Weise. (2024). Payoff designs in post-decision wagering: a systematic review. Metacognition and Learning. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11409-024-09411-z
q1 · i? · quant-synthesis · r2
Theoretical analysis applying Clifford et al. (2008) to free-choice designs in which wins for correct responses increase with wager size and losses mirror wins. The review reports "only the lowest and highest wagering categories are ever optimal strategies", even when losses do not precisely mirror wins as long as both increase by the same amounts.
"applying the analysis of Clifford et al. (2008), by computing for each confidence level the most profitable wager, shows that only the lowest and highest wagering categories are ever optimal strategies."
Discussion¶
Related Claims¶
- Most four-cell PDW payoff matrices fulfill the intuitive wagering-on-correctness properties — related
- Free-choice wager designs vary widely in wager categories and often match other instruments — related
- Many four-cell PDW payoff matrices imply an optimal strategy of always wagering high — related
- Participants frequently deviate from optimal wagering strategies implied by payoff matrices — related
- No-loss gambling and gains-only designs avoid loss-aversion complications in PDW
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
free-choice-only-extreme-wagers-optimal |
title |
In standard free-choice wagering schemes only the lowest and highest wagers are ever optimal |
description |
In standard free-choice wagering schemes only the lowest and highest wagers are ever optimal |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
weak |
newest_evidence |
2024 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-19 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
1 — lorenz-weise-2024 |
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