Free-choice wager designs vary widely in wager categories and often match other instruments¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · quant-synthesis r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2024 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? The number of wager categories in free-choice designs ranges from 3 to 100 (median 5), with 88% including fewer than 12 amounts, and 45% of free-choice designs match some other confidence or awareness instrument. → Lorenz Weise 2024

Evidence¶

Lorenz Weise 2024¶

Lorenz Weise. (2024). Payoff designs in post-decision wagering: a systematic review. Metacognition and Learning. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11409-024-09411-z

q2 · i? · quant-synthesis · r2

Quantitative synthesis across the 33 free-choice payoff designs assembled in the review. The review reports the number of wager amounts "ranges from 3 to 100 (median = 5)" and separately that "15 out of 33 (45%) reviewed free choice designs appear to match some other instrument in order to compare the two".

"This number ranges from 3 to 100 (median = 5), with most payoff designs including less than 12 individual wager amounts (29 out of 33, 88%)"

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• In standard free-choice wagering schemes only the lowest and highest wagers are ever optimal — related
• Many four-cell PDW payoff matrices imply an optimal strategy of always wagering high
• No-loss gambling and gains-only designs avoid loss-aversion complications in PDW
• Participants frequently deviate from optimal wagering strategies implied by payoff matrices