Gap analysis comparing observed to predicted DFW rates recasts course rankings, revealing courses that exceed or fall below expectations in a way raw DFW ranking does not¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2017 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2020: tool and model accuracy changes quickly

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Some courses with high observed DFW rates have similarly high predicted DFW rates, so they drop out of the alarm range when gaps are used, while others perform better than predicted. → Bloemer 2017 q2 i? Courses with modest observed DFW rates can be much higher than expected for their enrolled population, so gap analysis surfaces problem courses that raw rates overlook. → Bloemer 2017

Evidence¶

Bloemer 2017¶

Bloemer, W., Day, S., & Swan, K. (2017). Gap analysis: An innovative look at gateway courses and student retention. Online Learning, 21(3), 5-14. https://doi.org/10.24059/olj.v21i3.1233

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Analysis of all undergraduate degree-seeking students at a small Midwestern public university over four years; a binary logistic regression predicted DFW probability from Student Type, life-cycle stage, prior cumulative GPA, and prior DFW fraction, producing predicted rates benchmarked against observed rates for 34 general education courses. The sixth course "moves from being in the top five problematic courses by actual DFW rate to the middle of th e pack when judged by the gap."

"The sixth course in Table 1 moves from being in the top five problematic courses by actual DFW rate to the middle of th e pack when judged by the gap."

Bloemer 2017 (2)¶

Bloemer, W., Day, S., & Swan, K. (2017). Gap analysis: An innovative look at gateway courses and student retention. Online Learning, 21(3), 5-14. https://doi.org/10.24059/olj.v21i3.1233

q2 · i? · associational · r2

The same four-year institutional records analysis found courses whose DFW rates "are not high enough to attract attention, but are much higher than would be expected for their given student population"; the fifth-ranked-by-gap course "might be overlooked using actual DFW rates" yet ranks in the top 5 by gap.

"The fifth row in Table 1 shows a course that might be overlooked using actual DFW rates. Using that gap as the measure brings it into the top 5 of courses that need to be looked at."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Core-course failures in freshman year strongly predict non-graduation, similarly across subjects — related
• A course whose DFW grades produced no expected persistence drop suggests some courses may act as guardrails associated with retained persistence after failure — related
• School effectiveness estimates from fall-to-spring versus spring-to-spring growth correlate only moderately to strongly (.399 to .705), below the .90 threshold at which rank orderings diverge in accountability — related