Core-course failures in freshman year strongly predict non-graduation, similarly across subjects¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · associational r2 · q3
Currency · newest study 2005 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q3 i? 83 percent of students with no semester F's in core courses graduated within four years, and each additional F lowered graduation rates; the relationship was similar across English, math, science, and social science. → Allensworth 2005 q3 i? Course failure correlated with graduation at about -0.49 for English, math, and science and -0.48 for social science among 1999 freshmen. → Allensworth 2005 (2)

Evidence¶

Allensworth 2005¶

Allensworth, E. M., & Easton, J. Q. (2005). The On-Track Indicator as a Predictor of High School Graduation. Consortium on Chicago School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/track-indicator-predictor-high-school-graduation

q3 · i? · associational · r2

Observational analysis of the fall 2000 CPS cohort by number of semester F's, reported with Figure 5. Fewer than one-third of freshmen with three or more semester F's graduated in four years; the relationship held equally among high- and low-elementary-achieving students.

"The vast majority of students (83 percent) who received no semester F's in core courses during the freshman year graduated within four years. Students who received just one semester F had a graduation rate more than 20 percentage points lower than than students who passed all their courses."

Allensworth 2005 (2)¶

Allensworth, E. M., & Easton, J. Q. (2005). The On-Track Indicator as a Predictor of High School Graduation. Consortium on Chicago School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/track-indicator-predictor-high-school-graduation

q3 · i? · associational · r2

Correlational analysis of 1999 CPS freshmen by subject of the failed course. The report found the relationship between course failure and graduation was similar across all subjects, so no single subject's failure is uniquely predictive.

"graduation was correlated with English failure, math failure, and science failure at -0.49, and with social science failure at -0.48"

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Within every student category, freshman GPA, course failures, and absences are strongly related to five-year graduation rates, with large drops per half grade point, per additional course failure, and per absence band — a broader claim this one bears on
• Non-core course failures in ninth grade were associated with decreases in four-year graduation rates similar to core course failures — related
• Ninth-grade GPA strongly predicts on-time high school graduation, with an especially large gap between F and D students — related
• More Barton freshmen failed math than English, and many failing students failed both subjects — related
• Freshman failures clustered in math more than English, and many students failed both core subjects — related
• Gap analysis comparing observed to predicted DFW rates recasts course rankings, revealing courses that exceed or fall below expectations in a way raw DFW ranking does not — related
• Three freshman warning indicators—off-track status, any course failure, and attendance below 85 percent—identify 70 percent of eventual non-graduates — related
• The first two semester course failures in ninth grade are associated with a 30 percentage point decrease in the probability of graduating — related