In the calibrated simulation, a shock reducing grade 3 learning by one-third leaves the cohort a full year of learning behind the no-shock counterfactual by grade 10¶
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Evidence · 1 study · theoreticalr3·q1
Currency · newest study 2021 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · recheck by 2026: baselines and conditions change
Subclaims¶
Reading the evidence codes
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q1 i? Reducing grade 3 learning gains by one-third reduces average grade 10 learning by a full year relative to the counterfactual of no shock. → Kaffenberger 2021
Evidence¶
Kaffenberger 2021¶
Kaffenberger, Michelle. (2021). Modelling the long-run learning impact of the Covid-19 learning shock: Actions to (more than) mitigate loss. International Journal of Educational Development. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijedudev.2020.102326
q1 · i? · theoretical · r3
Simulation using a PPF model calibrated to PISA-D countries, applying a one-third reduction to grade 3 learning and modelling trajectories through grade 10. The modelled finding is that learning is "a full year lower" in grade 10 than the no-shock counterfactual.
"When this cohort of current grade 3 students reaches grade 10, their learning on average is a full year lower than what it would have been had there been no shock"
Discussion¶
Related Claims¶
- Short-term remediation covering missed grade 3 material in grade 4 halves the long-term loss, but leaves the cohort 0.55 years behind the no-shock counterfactual — related
- A larger shock halving grade 3 learning leaves the cohort 1.5 years behind by grade 10, with more than 80 percent of in-school children learning nothing — related
- Remediation combined with long-term reorientation of instruction to children's learning levels fully mitigates the shock and surpasses the no-shock counterfactual by more than a year of learning — related
- The unmitigated shock reduces the share of the grade 3 cohort reaching SDG minimum proficiency in mathematics by grade 10 from 7 percent to 3 percent — related
- Learning losses accumulate because children fall behind the curriculum and outside the range of the pedagogical production function, making no further gains: 72 percent of in-school children after the unmitigated shock — related
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
grade-3-one-third-shock-full-year-grade-10-loss |
title |
In the calibrated simulation, a shock reducing grade 3 learning by one-third leaves the cohort a full year of learning behind the no-shock counterfactual by grade 10 |
description |
In the calibrated simulation, a shock reducing grade 3 learning by one-third leaves the cohort a full year of learning behind the no-shock counterfactual by grade 10 |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
weak |
newest_evidence |
2021 |
recheck_by |
2026 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-16 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
1 — kaffenberger-2021 |
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