The unmitigated shock reduces the share of the grade 3 cohort reaching SDG minimum proficiency in mathematics by grade 10 from 7 percent to 3 percent¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · theoretical r3 · q1
Currency · newest study 2021 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q1 i? Modelling against the PISA-scale 400-point minimum-proficiency definition, the shocked cohort's SDG attainment drops from 7 percent to 3 percent by grade 10. → Kaffenberger 2021

Evidence¶

Kaffenberger 2021¶

Kaffenberger, Michelle. (2021). Modelling the long-run learning impact of the Covid-19 learning shock: Actions to (more than) mitigate loss. International Journal of Educational Development. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijedudev.2020.102326

q1 · i? · theoretical · r3

SDG-4 outcome measure from the calibrated simulation using the UIS definition of minimum proficiency as roughly a PISA score of 400. The half-loss shock reduces attainment further, to 2 percent.

"The percent of the current grade 3 cohort that would reach the SDG goal of minimum proficiency in mathematics by grade 10 drops from 7 percent with no shock to just 3 percent reaching the SDG goal with the shock"

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• In the calibrated simulation, a shock reducing grade 3 learning by one-third leaves the cohort a full year of learning behind the no-shock counterfactual by grade 10 — related
• Remediation combined with long-term reorientation of instruction to children's learning levels fully mitigates the shock and surpasses the no-shock counterfactual by more than a year of learning — related
• Learning losses accumulate because children fall behind the curriculum and outside the range of the pedagogical production function, making no further gains: 72 percent of in-school children after the unmitigated shock — related
• A larger shock halving grade 3 learning leaves the cohort 1.5 years behind by grade 10, with more than 80 percent of in-school children learning nothing — related
• Short-term remediation covering missed grade 3 material in grade 4 halves the long-term loss, but leaves the cohort 0.55 years behind the no-shock counterfactual — related