Despite higher passing rates, retention rates did not fall because fewer students who failed the cutoff were promoted with waivers¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2000 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? In 1999, 18 percent of included third graders, 11 percent of included sixth graders and 8 percent of included eighth graders were retained or sent to Transition Centers, so higher passing rates are not translating into lower retention rates. → Roderick 2000 q2 i? Waiver use declined: 34 percent of third graders who did not make the cutoff were promoted in 1997, compared to only 21 percent in 1999. → Roderick 2000 (2)

Evidence¶

Roderick 2000¶

Roderick, M., Nagaoka, J., Bacon, J., & Easton, J. Q. (2000). Update: Ending Social Promotion: Passing, Retention, and Achievement Trends Among Promoted and Retained Students 1995-1999. Consortium on Chicago School Research. https://www.consortium-chicago.org

q2 · i? · causal · r1

Trend analysis of retention rates among students included under the CPS promotional policy, 1997-1999. The brief states "higher passing rates are not translating into lower retention rates"; third-grade cutoff passers rose 8 points while retention fell only 2 points.

"In 1999, 18 percent of included third grad- ers, 11 percent of included sixth graders and 8 percent of included eighth graders were retained or sent to T ransition Centers"

Roderick 2000 (2)¶

Roderick, M., Nagaoka, J., Bacon, J., & Easton, J. Q. (2000). Update: Ending Social Promotion: Passing, Retention, and Achievement Trends Among Promoted and Retained Students 1995-1999. Consortium on Chicago School Research. https://www.consortium-chicago.org

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Trend analysis of waiver/promotion decisions among students failing the cutoff, 1997-1999. The brief explains the retention stability by noting "fewer students who do not meet the cutoff are promoted."

"In 1997, 34 percent of third graders who did not make the cutoff were promoted (waived), compared to only 21 percent in 1999"

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Passing rates improved from 1997 to 1998 in third and sixth grades, but retention rates did not decline because fewer students received waivers — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
• Passing rates under the Chicago promotional policy increased in all three grades from 1997 to 1999, mostly during the school year rather than Summer Bridge — a broader claim this one bears on
• Waivers promoted about one-third of third graders and 40% of sixth and eighth graders who failed the 1997 promotional criteria, keeping retention rates well below failure rates — related
• Sixth graders promoted in 1997 without meeting the test cutoff fared poorly at the eighth-grade gate, while Summer Bridge passers did relatively well — related
• Only 43% of retained third graders and 47% of retained sixth graders met the test criteria by summer 1998 despite four chances, yet over two-thirds were promoted the next year largely due to waivers — related
• Eighth-grade retention rates surged from under 2 percent prepolicy to 8.3 percent in the first policy year, peaking at 11.1 percent — related