Eighth-grade retention rates surged from under 2 percent prepolicy to 8.3 percent in the first policy year, peaking at 11.1 percent¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · causal r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2004 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Eighth-grade retention rose sharply after the gate: 8.3 percent the first year, continuing upward as cutoff scores rose, peaking at 11.1 percent before declining to 9.3 percent. → Allensworth 2004

Evidence¶

Allensworth 2004¶

Allensworth, E. (2004). Ending Social Promotion: Dropout Rates in Chicago after Implementation of the Eighth-Grade Promotion Gate. Consortium on Chicago School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/ending-social-promotion-dropout-rates-chicago-after-implementation-eighth-grade

q2 · i? · causal · r2

Cohort counts of retained eighth graders across the seven CPS cohorts, shown in Figure 2. The report notes retention declined to 9.3 percent with the fourth cohort as achievement increased and more students were promoted despite not meeting the cutoff.

"After the policy was initiated, retention rates surged in the first year to 8.3 percent. Be- cause the cutoff scores for promo- tion were set higher each year, retention rates continued to rise with the next two cohorts, peak- ing at 11.1 percent."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• After the promotion gate, general education eighth graders were retained at far higher rates while retention of students with disabilities fell, raising the disabled share of ninth graders — related
• Retention at the promotion gate increased the likelihood of dropping out by about 8 percentage points by age 17 and 13 points by age 19 — related
• Early-grade retention rose after the policy, and roughly 20 percent of first and second graders who were retained experienced a second retention in third grade — related
• Eighth-grade achievement rose substantially in postpolicy cohorts, with the 1998 cohort's included students more than half a standard deviation above prepolicy levels
• Defining dropout cohorts by age 13 rather than by ninth-grade entry avoids composition bias from the CPS promotion policy's grade retentions — related
• Despite higher passing rates, retention rates did not fall because fewer students who failed the cutoff were promoted with waivers — related