The prognostic power of domain-identical pretests degrades with longer pre-posttest time lags, most strongly at the student level¶
Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · quant-synthesisr2·q2
Currency · newest study 2024 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · recheck by 2027: tool and model accuracy changes quickly
Subclaims¶
Reading the evidence codes
q is the design tier, i the impact, n the sample, and the kind with its r
the rigour judged within that kind: what each code means.
This claim: no standardized effect is recorded in observations/ for it yet, so no benchmark reading is possible.
q3 i? Prior reviewed evidence shows single-level R2 for IP dropped from Pooled R2 = 0.63 at a 1-year lag to 0.36 at a 7-year lag, and multilevel R2 at L1 declined from 0.50 (1-year) to 0.35 (3-year), while L3 values were far less prone to time effects. → Stallasch 2024
Evidence¶
Stallasch 2024¶
Stallasch, S. E., Lüdtke, O., Artelt, C., Hedges, L. V., & Brunner, M. (2024). Single- and Multilevel Perspectives on Covariate Selection in Randomized Intervention Studies on Student Achievement. Educational Psychology Review. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10648-024-09898-7
q2 · i? · quant-synthesis · r2
Quantitative research review of previous studies on validity degradation, meta-analytically integrated by the authors; the review reports single-level IP values dropping "from Pooled R2T∣IP−1 = 0.63 to Pooled R2T∣IP−7 = 0.36".
"Multilevel Perspective The few existing studies on multilevel design parameters addressing the temporal validity degradation of covariates attested a notable decre- ment of explanatory power of IP at L1; Pooled R2 L1 /uni007C.varIP−1 = 0.50 declined to Pooled R2 L1 /uni007C.varIP−3 = 0.35 ."
Discussion¶
Related Claims¶
- At the school level, domain-identical pretests show exceptional prognostic power from grade 5 onward, but are weaker predictors at the student and classroom levels across the school career — related
- Domain-identical pretests are the most powerful single-level covariate type for student achievement, outperforming cross-domain pretests, fluid intelligence, and sociodemographic characteristics — related
- Sociodemographic covariates outweigh domain-identical pretests for predicting between-classroom and between-school variance in elementary school — related
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
ip-validity-decay-time-lags |
title |
The prognostic power of domain-identical pretests degrades with longer pre-posttest time lags, most strongly at the student level |
description |
The prognostic power of domain-identical pretests degrades with longer pre-posttest time lags, most strongly at the student level |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
moderate |
newest_evidence |
2024 |
recheck_by |
2027 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-19 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
1 — stallasch-2024 |
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