Most CPS completers who took longer than four years were enrolled more than eight terms: 67% finished in nine or ten terms and 12% in eleven or twelve¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r2 · q3
Currency · newest study 2023 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q3 i? Among 2012–14 CPS graduates who completed in four to six years, about 79% were enrolled more than eight terms, with 67% needing one or two extra terms. → Nagaoka 2023

Evidence¶

Nagaoka 2023¶

Nagaoka, J., Mahaffie, S., Usher, A., & Arneson, A. (2023). The four years fallacy: Four-year vs. six-year bachelor's degree completion rates. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/the-four-years-fallacy

q3 · i? · associational · r2

Analysis of terms enrolled for 5,447 2012–14 CPS immediate enrollees who completed a bachelor's degree in more than four but within six years (Figure 2). The report states "about 67% of students needed one or two extra terms" and 12% took 11 or 12 terms. No effect size is printed.

"The majority of students took more than 8 terms to complete a bachelor's degree—about 67% of students needed one or two extra terms (completing in nine or 10 terms), and an additional 12% of students took considerably longer (11 or 12 terms)."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• A majority of NFTE alumni respondents were attending or had finished college, and 91 percent of college finishers completed a four-year degree or higher — related
• Each additional semester of continuous college enrollment is associated with a higher completion rate, but no specific semesters carry distinctive predictive value — related
• Stopping out was common and associated with non-completion: about 90 percent of CPS graduates who took a semester off did not finish a degree within six years — related