Each additional semester of continuous college enrollment is associated with a higher completion rate, but no specific semesters carry distinctive predictive value¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2024 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Students continuously enrolled for at least four semesters completed college at a rate of 71%, versus 65% for students enrolled for at least three semesters. → Mahaffie 2024 q2 i? The analysis found no clear cutoff points at which specific semesters had predictive value over and above other semesters of enrollment. → Mahaffie 2024 (2)

Evidence¶

Mahaffie 2024¶

Mahaffie, S., Nagaoka, J., & Usher, A. (2024). Measuring Patterns of Immediate and Continued College Enrollment among CPS Graduates. University of Chicago Consortium on School Research and the To&Through Project. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/measuring-patterns-of-immediate-and-continued-college-enrollment-among-CPSs-graduates

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Descriptive analysis (Figure 5) of completion rates for CPS graduates continuously enrolled across each number of semesters in the first four years after high school graduation. Students meeting the existing four-semester persistence definition completed at "a rate of 71%" versus 65% for three continuous semesters, a 6 percentage point gap.

"students who persisted for at least four semesters completed at a rate of 71%, while students who completed at least three semesters of college completed at a rate of 65%"

Mahaffie 2024 (2)¶

Mahaffie, S., Nagaoka, J., & Usher, A. (2024). Measuring Patterns of Immediate and Continued College Enrollment among CPS Graduates. University of Chicago Consortium on School Research and the To&Through Project. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/measuring-patterns-of-immediate-and-continued-college-enrollment-among-CPSs-graduates

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Analysis of completion rates by number of semesters of continuous enrollment in the first four years after graduation, used to test whether any persistence definition variant was more predictive of completion. The authors "did not find clear cutoff points", supporting the choice of a simpler definition on other grounds.

"We confirmed that each additional term of college enrollment was associated with a higher completion rate, but did not find clear cutoff points that indicated any specific semesters had particular predictive value over and above other semesters of enrollment."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Five persistence definition variants show similar predictiveness of completion, but the third-semester point-in-time definition yields persistence rates up to 14 percentage points higher than the continuous four-term definition — related
• Students meeting the continuous four-term persistence definition completed college at higher rates than students meeting the third-semester definition, for both bachelor's and community college enrollees — related
• Stopping out was common and associated with non-completion: about 90 percent of CPS graduates who took a semester off did not finish a degree within six years — related
• CPS graduates took more than 6,000 distinct post-secondary paths, so continuous enrollment at one college was not the standard route to a credential — related
• Bottom Line increases progression in college (continuous enrollment for three semesters after high school) — related
• Delaying college enrollment was associated with low completion: only 8 percent of CPS students who delayed completed a degree or credential within six years — related
• First-semester transfer students taking one general education course persisted at rates 15-20% lower than similar non-takers, an effect absent when the course was taken in a later term — related
• Most CPS completers who took longer than four years were enrolled more than eight terms: 67% finished in nine or ten terms and 12% in eleven or twelve — related