Logistic regression can identify the ELP score at which students have a probability of 0.5 of being proficient on the academic content assessment, as a candidate English-proficient standard¶
Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associationalr2·q2
Currency · newest study 2012 · checked against its sources 2026-10-20 (automated, 1 of 1 entry) · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2015: tool and model accuracy changes quickly
Subclaims¶
Reading the evidence codes
q is the design tier, i the impact, n the sample, and the kind with its r
the rigour judged within that kind: what each code means.
This claim: no standardized effect is recorded in observations/ for it yet, so no benchmark reading is possible.
q2 i? Logistic regression analysis estimates the probability of content-assessment proficiency for each ELP score and can identify ELP scores where students have a probability equal to or greater than 0.5 of being proficient. → Cook 2012
Evidence¶
Cook 2012¶
Cook, G., Linquanti, R., Chinen, M., & Jung, H. (2012). National Evaluation of Title III Implementation Supplemental Report—Exploring Approaches to Setting English Language Proficiency Performance Criteria and Monitoring English Learner Progress. American Institutes for Research, Washington, DC. http://www.ed.gov/about/offices/list/opepd/ppss/index.html
q2 · i? · associational · r2
Chapter II's Key Approaches section defines the logistic regression method, noting it "could identify ELP scores for which students have a probability of equal to or greater than 50-50 (0.5) of being proficient on the content assessment." The 0.5 criterion is chosen because ELP assessments are not designed to strongly predict content proficiency.
"Logistic regression analysis, which estimates the probability of being proficient on academic-content assessments for each ELP score."
Discussion¶
Related Claims¶
- In both analysis years and all tested grades, EL students reach a 50 percent chance of SBAC ELA proficiency within ELPAC overall PL 4 — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
- Using grade 6 math CST scale scores rather than proficiency status increases the accuracy of grade 8 algebra I placement decisions from 69 to 75 percent — related
- A ninth-grade EXPLORE composite score of 17 is the tipping point for reaching an ACT score of 20, and can serve as an interim benchmark — related
- Grade 6 math CST proficiency alone is not an effective indicator of algebra readiness: students need a scale score of 367, about 0.27 SD above the cutpoint, to reach a 50 percent probability of grade 8 algebra I proficiency — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
- ELPAC overall PL 4 remains the appropriate Criterion 1 reclassification threshold, with 2017-18 and 2022-23 data converging on the same level — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
logistic-regression-half-probability-criterion |
title |
Logistic regression can identify the ELP score at which students have a probability of 0.5 of being proficient on the academic content assessment, as a candidate English-proficient standard |
description |
Logistic regression can identify the ELP score at which students have a probability of 0.5 of being proficient on the academic content assessment, as a candidate English-proficient standard |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
moderate |
newest_evidence |
2012 |
source_checked |
2026-10-20 |
recheck_by |
2015 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-10 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
1 — cook-2012 |
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